People couldn't afford houses BEFORE they decided to slap on taxes to wood [the main material] and steel [another common material in homes], as well as deporting the demographic that tends to build most of them...
this post was submitted on 17 Apr 2025
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I feel we are in that period where housing is sorta being ignored. Like in 2008 no one was talking about housing doing poorly it was only later it was recognized.
How will this affect house prices?
Housing prices are sticky to go down because they're also an investment. People (in aggregate) have a tendency to hold rather than sell at a loss. Also note it varies significantly across geographies.
Edit: also houses are not liquid so that also adds to the stickiness of pricing. It takes time for price signals to develop due to the slow (often over a month) & infrequent nature of transactions. It also matters that there's an industry of professionals who benefit from keeping prices higher.
What's your estimate for 2-3 years from now? 20% price drop?
It's overvalued in my market at the moment, (Dallas) majority of properties sitting on the market for over half a year and making several list price reductions. COVID inflated the market a bit too much and it needs to come down... 10-20% would be a fair amount I'd expect it to drop over 2 years.
But there are a lot of external factors I'm not considering in my estimate: like idiotic tariffs, incompetent leadership at the state level, and a possible demographic shift depending on how people react to immigration reductions (and possibly net emmigration)... I give a significant chance something out of left field will upend the economy 🤷♂️. But who knows when the people in charge change their policies every other day and then insist their new opinion has always been their super secret plan all along...
About what I figure too. Lot of variables and curveballs. Not a lot of upside.