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| Party | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 189 | +29 | 43.1% | +10.5% | 74.7% | 18.4% |
| Conservative | 127 | +8 | 40.4% | +6.7% | 1.9% | 5% |
| Bloc | 20 | -12 | 4.6% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 5 | -20 | 6.1% | -11.7% | N/A | N/A |
Its interesting (and not particularly surprising) that as Poilievre is cornered into distancing himself from Dumpster, some of CPC's most recent decline matches a small PPC uptick. I'd wager that'll continue. LPC on the other hand is riding so high they pretty much had to come down some, and where they (marginally) go next is anyone's guess, likely mostly up to whatever minor events arise during the campaign rather than anything already set in motion.
The last datapoint is interesting. All four of the top parties lost a little ground? Where did it go? Surely not all to the PPC, and the Greens don't look like they gained that much.
The rise of independents looks significant too. Maybe it's down to some riding with CPC candidates getting snubbed and then pulling the local support they had.