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within the next decade?
We're already most of the way there. Inept, Incompetent, and overtly corrupt governments engraging the population homelessness, unemployment, unpopular immigration and costs of necessities going haywire trade wars brewing, Oh, and World War III is basically already in it's pre-game show stage with the fighting in Europe.
I'm at the point where Im expecting it any day. the US is just one bad move away from causing an all out revolt, because part of its population rightly thinks that the new admnistration is full of mobsters, tyrants, and fascists.
Well, this has been known for decades, the Club or Rome's report (Limits of Growth) predicted this in the 1970s. Here's a graphic from 2004:
We need UBI (Universal Basic Income) or people are going to not be able to afford basic commodities any more. We already see working poor, it's gonna get worse. Demand UBI.
Few people are just going to sit and starve. They will steal food directly or turn to other crimes to get money to buy food.
And here's the latest recalibration, done in 2023, main difference is that pollution just uses co2 level instead of a complex aggregate of pollution metrics.
Your pictured 2004 model may be the BAU model in these charts, not 100% sure, but Recalibration23 is the latest one.
EDIT: Looks like BAU2.
EDIT 2: Ah, didn't realize who I was replying to, haha. I have apparently successfully evangelized this model to you from that other thread a few days ago.
Still useful for any other readers to see.
...
Socialism or barbarism wasn't just a catchphrase.
Unfortinately, we chose barbarism... even if a miraculous overthrow of capitalism happened right now... I think it is about two decades to late to avoid a catastrophic collapse in standard of living and loss of life.
I used to be pro UBI. Now I'm not so sure. The only resilient tool for increased equality is an organized work force that has real economic power. Workers on UBI has no real power and the UBI can be taken away anytime by those in power.
And if AI takes all jobs.. Well, lets cross that bridge when we get there. Maybe we simply have to hope for that crypto bro UBI solution. Qualia will be our last currency.
An organized work force in the USA is wishful thinking. It could have happened any time in the last 150 years, it didn't. I don't see it happening now.
UBI is a temporary measure. While i agree with you, that it weakens the stance of the population, because they are dependent on welfare money, i'm still reasonably sure it's way better than literally dying by starving to death. Because that's what's otherwise gonna happen.
The only true solution i see is reducing the population size. Supply and demand. If the workforce is smaller, wages are going to go up. The ethical options to do this is by being against migration, and giving women the option to have fewer children. But yeah, you can't say that, or "leftists" will call you a racist, while Trumpeteers will call you a "baby-murderer". So, i guess the USA is stuck.
I can think of a couple of ways to fix that.
Have an additional one
"within the next decade" sounds like an unnecessarily long view on it. Next Christmas will come within the next decade too but it doesn't mean it'll be 10 years from now.
The participants identified a negative feedback loop, whereby the government’s failure to tax wealth effectively means it lacks sufficient revenue to uphold the social contract by which strong public services, an effective social safety net and a healthy economy provide people with decent living standards.
Trust in politics then declines further, politicians avoid honest discussions of the underlying problems and what to do about them, and the system’s legitimacy is increasingly questioned as the social contract collapses.
That's a nice story, but there's been plenty of even less egalitarian societies. Pretty much all of the ones in written history, actually.
More likely, in the short term a new, more coercive "social contract" will be rotated in (if the trend continues). Heck, we're already seeing it a bit in the US. Now showing fealty to the president is more important than public relations for a lot of companies and billionaires.
It's hard to imagine, but modern inequality is actually very extreme in historical context
From a quick skim, that's not actually what this says. It's about wealth tending to concentrate in historical societies until there's a catastrophe. The graph of estimated wealth inequality included takes an absolute nosedive in the 20th century before starting to climb back up a bit, and it's still shown way lower than in the bad old days.
Keep in mind that ancient societies, at their worst, were mostly slaves, with just enough free people to beat them into submission. (At their best, you get some merchant republics and loosely overseen peasant communities, but no actual democracies)
You know, revolution is not the same as collapse.
It is for the rich.
For them it is catastrophic collapse of the stonk market and economy with trillions of wealth evaporating overnight.
For us, it is Tuesday.
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It usually is. Its a high risk gamble that can lead to basically anyghing. And probably that anything will be bad for the poor. Reformism and organized labor is a safer path towards increased equality. But maybe that ship has sailed for the US...
Already there.
Good
Not really, given the current state of the world, it would most likely accelerate the rise of fascism, war and the further environmental destruction of the planet.
Yeah you only need to look at post world war 1 Germany to see how that works out. Or post USSR Russia. It’s fascism that rises to the top.
I'm pretty sure that's the aim of most accelerationists
Pretty much, you know what you'll lose but not what you'll get. A societal collapse would lead to a massive power vacuum that could lead both ways, but I'm not optimistic for a good outcome...
I'd agree if it was just the oppressive system and the power and wealth of those benefitting the most from it collapsing with no ripple effects, but the most vulnerable groups of people will take the brunt of the initial damage long before the billionaires feel it.
A shitload of innocent people are going to die from the devastation wrought by a few billionaires and the politicians they own. Even more so than today.
The ownership class reading this: “…the training wheels are coming off, boys. It’s time we really kick this thing into high gear. We’re running out of time. Get your affairs in order—and by that I mean pick which if your mistresses will be your concubines on your floating golden fortress.”
“Understood.”
The group: “‘we’re the fuckin worst’ on three—one, two, three!
All:
“WE’RE THE FUCKING WORST!”
Generic white guy #1: “Alright, good hustle. Now go out there and fuckin murder some lower class people! This death machine ain’t gonna run itself! lol obviously im kidding, we were born into a machine that already runs itself and we were just the dumb lucky bastards born into the positions we’re in. But we deserve it!
Generic white guy #12: woah, Tom, you thought a little too much there. I’m afraid…we’re gonna have to take away the “#1” from your position. We worked hard to get where we are today! Don’t you EVER suggest there is an inherent flaw in a hierarchical system! You will be punished severely for even MAKING a reference to some FAKE injustice in our system! You are now #4. Other Tom, congratulations, now you’re #1. You must be very proud to hold this position.
Previously Generic white guy #4: this is an honor. I deserve this.
$1Trillion dollars wiped off the stock market? NBD, just push the AI more, so we can be free from the labour(ers). So cooked.
That money is just somewhere else.
So why don't we just eat the rich? Why can't we do the gamestop stock thing again at a bigger scale?
For the US, my guess is: within the next 4 years. Inflation will be insane. Lets hope blue collar can organize and leverage the situation.
pretty sure they said the same ting 10 years ago
10 years ago, it was a night and day better world state.
Even Trump 1.0, the worst thing in the world at the time was the ISIS threat. In Trump 2.0, We live in a world with
- WW3 Basically in its opening stage in Ukraine, Russia is pretty much fucked, but NATO is fucked too now that the US is run by someone who hates it
- Post Covid destruction of the economy
- The billionares have turned megalomaniac and wormed their way into government ears
- The US had an attempted Coup, the person who organized it is now the POTUS. and the people who participated in it are on the streets
- the gradual increase of uneducated stupidity through social media and MSM TV Brainrot.
We've basically been in a spiral towards armageddon this decade, the 2020s are BRUTAL compared to the mid 2010s.
And the trend has only accelerated since. Especially now that the fascists are implementing Project 2025 with frantic haste.
Just like with climate change, the fact that they hardly ever get the timeframe stated in the headlines right doesn't mean that the emergency isn't real.