That absolutely does not look like it fell from orbit. Hell, it barely looks like it fell from very high at all!
Maybe there was some kind of spin-stabilized airfoil effect as it dropped? Or are these things just the most durable objects ever?
this post was submitted on 02 Jan 2025
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I doubt it would be spin-stabilized. I think tumbling would be more likely.
It looks like it has a decent amount of cross-sectional area for its mass. If it is steel, it could withstand pretty high temperatures without melting.
Not everyone is convinced, no -
"However, sky watching veteran and reentry tracker, Jonathan McDowell who works at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Inside Outer Space that there is "no obvious space candidate. I am not convinced it's not from an airplane. Don’t see obvious evidence of reentry heating.""
Jonathan McDowell who works at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Inside Outer Space that there is “no obvious space candidate
He has since revised his opinion after reviewing more data: https://bsky.app/profile/planet4589.bsky.social/post/3lezeu2zodk22
Well, my skepticism about the Kenya space debris may have been wrong. I reviewed the data again, concluding that Space Force estimates of the Ariane V184 upper stage reentry are unreliable; an assocation with this object can't be ruled out.
He has posted a more detailed writeup here: https://planet4589.org/space/misc/kenya/index.html