We need more fabs. Entire world's supply of 3nm blown on iPhones
this post was submitted on 30 Aug 2023
237 points (95.1% liked)
Technology
73567 readers
3205 users here now
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
Our Rules
- Follow the lemmy.world rules.
- Only tech related news or articles.
- Be excellent to each other!
- Mod approved content bots can post up to 10 articles per day.
- Threads asking for personal tech support may be deleted.
- Politics threads may be removed.
- No memes allowed as posts, OK to post as comments.
- Only approved bots from the list below, this includes using AI responses and summaries. To ask if your bot can be added please contact a mod.
- Check for duplicates before posting, duplicates may be removed
- Accounts 7 days and younger will have their posts automatically removed.
Approved Bots
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
In this case it's not truly a result of limited fab availability.
TSMC has two main variants of their 3nm node. The original one, that Apple is using, is N3B. It has worse yields, so TSMC started work on another variant, N3E. N3E has much better yields but will not be ready until late 2023 or early 2024. Everyone else besides Apple opted to skip N3B and go for N3E. Apple, with their very consistent release cadence, didn't want to wait for N3E. So Apple — and only Apple — is using N3B.
Thus, we have:
(1) TSMC only has one 3nm node in 2023: N3B.
(2) TSMC only has one customer for N3B: Apple.
(3) TSMC will never have any other customer use N3B, and have no incentives to build capacity beyond what is needed now.
It's effectively tautological that their entire 3nm allocation will be sold exclusively to Apple in 2023.
Intel were made to share their technology due to a monopoly not too long ago. Same should be the case here
The tech isn't the hurdle. The industrial capacity is. It's not a good investment due to time and cost of building another full facility. That's why the Biden Administration was so gung ho about the subsidies and tax incentives in the CHIPS act; a government actor is needed to make the math make sense.
Absolutely, I agree with that but if Apple are the only ones that can use this tech as was suggested by another commentor then they should be made share the tech for the sake of innovation and progress.
I agree with government intervention here but think the Biden admin went a ways into protectionism which is a different conversation. I don't think these Fabs are going out of date anytime soon so we should be building them globally, we are screaming out for more chips and the more that are built the cheaper they will get.
The issue is that the US doesn’t own all of the relevant patents, just most of them. It’s hard to apply US anti-monopoly laws against a company based in the Netherlands that primarily sells its products to Korea and Taiwan. All the US can do is threaten to pull the EUV-LLC patents that the department of energy developed.
Sounds like there isn't anyone able to use the 3nm technology anyhow so not sure how big of a deal it is.
I do wish they weren't tied to Apple technology but if they're ahead of the game they're ahead of the game.
My understanding is essentially Apple has enough money on hand and foresight of product demands that they can do things like tell a supplier that they’re going to buy everything well in advance and secure those deals before other manufacturers are willing to commit. Presumably, there’s nothing to stop Samsung from going to TSMC and saying they want to buy all the capacity for 2024, except that Samsung doesn’t feel confident about matching Apple’s sales volume on those upcoming products.
I’ve also heard Apple will also fund expansion of their suppliers when needed. If someone makes a thing that Apple wants but doesn’t have the capacity to meet Apple’s volume, Apple will provide what they need to increase capacity, along with providing commitments to purchase enough product that the manufacturer is taking on minimal risks from the expansion.
Yep, it's hard to hate on Apple in this case when they're just more prepared and willing to commit.
My theory is that Apple is running out of time before Intel hits real hard. Intel became very lazy sitting on their laurels, AMD stole part of the market and now Apple did too. But Intel still has a lot of talent and their 12-th and 13-th gen processors clearly show that the storm is coming. Apple needs to secure their market share before it's too late, so they're buying everything they can to become absolute leaders. They have a few years to establish themselves.
Fun fact, the X-nm naming convention doesn't actually describe the size of the process. It comes from traditional scaling predictions that described a 70% scaling every 2 years.
Apple doing apple things. Nothing to see here. Money can buy happiness and you can buy the new iPhone 15, releasing soon.