Somewhere, in a overly air-conditioned room, some yankie and frog-munching bleach demons are drooling to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.
this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2023
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chapotraphouse
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Will the west get involved?
The Nigerian Senate has refused the Nigerian President's request for authorization to deploy troops. I don't claim any expertise or knowledge in Nigerian politics, but it seems like intervention is running into some serious political opposition.
If I were Nigeria I would be thinking really hard about the fact that Niger and allies have Wagner forces in country making it difficult to avoid causing an international incident. There is also the geopoltical nightmare that will come from any ECOWAS soldiers that inevitably fk up by attacking Chinese security contractors guarding industrial and construction sites.
I thought wagner guys were pretty much disposable?
They are and they aren't, depending on which stance suits Russia. If Wagner gets attacked and Russia doesn't want further involvement: "Wagner is a private organization and their people chose to head into a potential war zone." If Russia wants to get more involved: "The brave heroes of Bakhmut have been attacked by terrorists."
Their presence creates strategic ambiguity for anyone eyeing an intervention. Them being in Niger forces the Nigerians to ask France for a security guarantee against Russia if Russia gets involved. The French are much less likely to grant that guarantee unless they're confident Russia won't escalate (which they can't know for sure).
I doubt they consider themselves disposable. And its a big operation with a very machismo "If you hit me, I'll hit you back twice as hard" mentality. I would not hit a Wagner unit if I could avoid it, personally.
It’s going to come down to whether they will have access to Russian air defense systems and cheap Russian/Iranian-designed drones.
That's good to hear, because the last thing the continent needs is another Congolese War.
New blowback season looking spicy
SPEAK ABOUT DESTRUCTION
My thoughts are with the people of Niger rn
Why?
French long-term energy security (who is apparently paying 10% of the world uranium market price - don’t have the sources to confirm atm) and the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) that needs to cut across a few of the countries to supply natural gas to Europe, who is currently having a severe shortage and at great risk of de-industrialization.
Geopolitically, France has no choice but to seek to regain its control in the region. They simply cannot afford to just leave, for France’s sake and for Europe’s sake.
Europe, who is currently having a severe shortage and at great risk of de-industrialization.
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The West demands it
ECOWAS either announced or is apparently going announce that they are pushing their deadline back to next week to match the African Union deadline.
I saw those rumors floating around too yea. The only reasons I can think of for this is that they're using this time to do more preparations for the war as well as try and pull other AU nations in as well
Waiting for the AU to potentially join is going to look less like NATO puppetting this whole thing than if Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire go in.
Fucking hell. I hope the 3 Nation alliance can win (or get some support)
ECOWAS will probably steamroll the 3 nation alliance unless Algeria and/or Russia comes in with strong support
Telegrams are suggesting that Wagner are already in Niger. There have been reports of clashes between them and Al-Qaeda along the Niger/Mali border. There have also been mentions of their deployment to the capital of Niger.
I don't think Wagner would be a big help unless they have support from the Russian MoD unfortunately. I think they're far too low tech by themselves to deal with anything more than ClA and DGSE backed rebel groups
I think it's worth looking at a list of Nigeria's military equipment before that assessment. They've about 500 armoured vehicles total and I'd say about 450 of those are uselessly out of date and will not stand up to even the most basic anti-vehicle tools today.
There is no other country from which an attack can be launched on Niger.
Cote D'Ivoire has almost nothing notable so they can be struck off as an invasion candidate, and Ghana has about 250 outdated IFVs and no tanks.
It is extremely possible for an infantry force to beat this shit if they're equipped properly for it and don't fight out in the deserts. If they stick to urban positions I don't think these forces will get them out, just like they have not been able to counter al-qaeda and other islamic extremist groups that are all infantry forces.
Look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Nigerian_Army
Half this shit is so ancient that I doubt they even deploy it.
One other thing to note: Nigeria is currently fighting against various insurgent groups like Boko Haram. They're not going to send their entire army to Niger.
The Military Balance 2023 - Series: Author(s): The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Got years of educated guesses for the military makeup of state actors and sometimes other groups. Your typical library might not have the books, but your typical university (online) library will.
The military spending of the countries is orders of magnitude different. Nigeria with close to 3 billion $ got a lot of potential, though since all countries are large and have tens of millions of people it might be hard to make advances that are not aimed at centers, elites or other powers of some kind of power. Controlling mine territory might ensure financial viability for some (i.e. Boko Haram / ISIS offspring) that had losses in the last years. The de stability from having ISIS bases in your vicinity is obvious and if the conflict becomes a military hot one the states have to spend more resources in combating that again.
Nigeria got 10 times the military spending of Niger for example and 10 times the population. Its army is used in counter insurgency and 100k strong, the navy 25k and air forces 18k numbers are reflecting its ability to maintain craft (list of vehicles is in the book). It also got a 80k strong gendarmerie/paramilitary force.
https://i.imgur.com/uh6ZAi3.png
Mali got with the 20-22 million population of which 1/4 is under 14 around 21k troops, also paramilitary up to 16k could be converted to fighting forces. However if war or military operations on larger and hot scale would break out increase of military size would be needed and that means resources would have to be focused on that, hindering the food security of the country. Some countries have effectively declared to be allied with Mali and some declared to accept the change in government. Since gold export is the main export income of those countries in the height of 10-15 billion they can likely export to other countries in terms of economic sanctions (currently the main countries taking the exports are the Swiss and Emirates with France nearly solely interesting in hundreds of millions of uranium and radioactive ore).
Who is going to supply these military size increases and where are the materials coming from for it? Russia and nato are both practically out of shit, and nato are trying to pretend they're not puppeting this so they're going to try to be less direct. Any size increases are going to be infantry-only, and I really don't think they're going to want to fight Wagner or attack neighbouring countries. I don't think conscription is going to work out.
Nigeria with close to 3 billion $ got a lot of potential
If we assume the Russian state's claim is true that Wagner's entire maintenance costs $1billion (doubt) they are more than capable of going against them. Given that they operate oil gas and other mining facilities bring in a lot, this estimates african mine profits of $1billion, while this estimates $1billion for forestry (of all things), and another $2.7billion for gold, in Sudan $1.9billion, and these are all 2022/2023ish. The money is there and we saw with Ukraine that they're capable of rapidly expanding, I think prison recruitment is likely if a war breaks out.
Interesting book btw, shame it hasn't got better information on Wagner in it. Their only numerical estimate is 10k Wagner working with Russia which I find laughable to be honest. I'm quite sure right now that they're over 50k between all deployments. Possibly higher.
The money is there and we saw with Ukraine that they're capable of rapidly expanding, I think prison recruitment is likely if a war breaks out.
They don't just recruit from Russia but also recruit internationally. By joining, international recruits get Russian citizenship. There are plenty of professional soldiers who due their own nations destabilizing or growing ethnic tensions at home are looking to Wagner for employment. It is alot easier to join Wagner than the French Foreign Legion.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/15/gurkha-soldiers-russia-wagner-mercenaries-putin/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/25/afghanistan-russia-ukraine-military-recruitment-putin-taliban/
https://adf-magazine.com/2023/01/wagner-group-turns-to-africa-for-recruits-in-war-effort/
I'm not talking about Russian prisons.
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Wouldn't Nigeria's ~85 deployable aircrafts vs the 3 nations' combined total of ~25 matter a lot more here if we're talking about military equipment?
Every deployment of Wagner I've seen is deployed with Pantsir and they make mincemeat out of large aircraft. From what I've seen the thing the Pantsirs struggle with is actually small drones, it seems to be the most common way the Pantsirs get destroyed.
They're also in Sudan right now and have Pantsirs there too, definitely seen imagery of that.
The JF-17s are probably the only concern? Those are not going to help much against urban positions though and I'm not convinced they won't be shot down by Pantsirs either.
Algeria said they would, didn't they?
Algeria's statement may have been more about the potential for spillover, since Algeria, like the rest of the Maghreb, is always fighting against small insurgent groups who retreat into the desert and in the event of a war in the Sahel, is probably going to grow much stronger as any weakening of the governments there will allow them to recruit more and more desperate and angry people.
Nope, they said they're against military intervention and that it's a direct threat to them but nothing about actual support. They even said that they condemn the coup from the current Nigerien govt so it looks like they're trying to remain neutral
What is ECOWAS asking because I'm stupid
Economic bloc of all the Western puppet states in Western Africa. Look at how Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali all got suspended
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States
thank you!
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