this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2023
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Inflation, surprisingly, has slowed down recently. I definitely expected it to continue at an elevated rate forever as dedollarization accelerated. It might just be a false plateau before something else causes inflation to spike again, but if not then this hypothesis (dedollarization is driving inflation) might not be sound.
I think part of it could be US cannibalizing Europe right now by luring away industry which is creating a short term economic boost we're seeing.
Possibly! Which, in turn, would weaken the USs positive relationships with those countries as they're pressured on multiple fronts (losses from trade competition, fallout from the Russian conflict, growing unrest from within the country) and thus accelerate dedollarization and then inflation. That would take time, though, and require another point of rupture that I certainly can't predict!
indeed