this post was submitted on 22 May 2024
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This still relies on humans carrying out these orders, which, historically, they have never done (Cuba Crisis, false alerts in the USSR). Putins button isn't wired to the ICBM launcher.
I don't think the button was ever pushed. Cuba crisis came very close and the false alerts were automated messages that were correctly deemed as false by the commanders. As far as I know there has never been a direct order to fire that got denied.
Yes, but it still comes down to the fact that it is at least unlikely for the entire chain of command down to the person who launches the nukes to look in the eye of the annihilation of society as we know it and still advance/carry out that order. In every situation where humans were faced with an order to launch, they decided not to carry it out so far.
Doesn't it also take a few minutes to go through the launch procedure? So they'd have time to think
Putin uses 1st nuke.
Nato strikes back conventionally
Putin orders all nukes.
Kid at a computer ordered by putin to launch all nukes - am I the baddy?
I have a different interpretation of those close calls: we were very very lucky and should not rely on defiance as a mechanism to avoid the apocalypse.
I've seen an interview with a former CIA spy who used to work in the bunker where they would have to insert rings (two of them) if an order came that said to launch nukes. They preselected them all on a psychological profile and, importantly, they did drills that they didn't know were drills. So they never knew whether the command coming in was real or not. They "launched" every single time.
I can very well imagine that this kind of "loyalty" would be tested in Russia as well.
They preselected them so well that a CIA spy worked in the bunker. I wonder where else along the chain there might be CIA spys.