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New poll reveals a major warning sign for Biden and Democrats in key down-ballot races
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 06 May 2024
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Missing some key context:
FTA:
"Overall, 62 percent of Black voters indicated that they were "absolutely certain to vote" in November, a decline from the 74 percent of Black voters who made the same statement in June 2020.
However, among the youngest cohort of Black voters — aged 18 to 39 — only 41 percent said they were "absolutely certain to vote." The number marked a steep decline from June 2020, when 61 percent of voters in this age group indicated that they were certain to vote.
Among young Black women, 39 percent of respondents said they were certain to vote this year, a sharp fall from the 69 percent who gave the same response in June 2020."
So, yeah, superficially it looks bad. The number of black voters saying they were almost certain to vote has dropped 12 points from 74% in 2020 to 62% today.
Among them, the number of young voters dropped 20 points from 61 to 41, and young women 30 points from 69 to 39.
Here's the piece missing... In 2020 how many of them ACTUALLY voted?
Table A-6 from here:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/voting-historical-time-series.html
64.7% of Blacks registered to vote in 2020.
58.7% actually voted.
So 74% of blacks polled said they were certain to vote, but of the entire population? Yeah, nowhere near that number registered and even fewer actually voted.
In the black youth vote, in 2020, only 43% of black voters aged 18-29 turned up to vote, and 2020, thanks to covid, was the most accessible election in years.
https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/2020-youth-voter-turnout-raceethnicity-and-gender
So 61% said they were certain to vote, only 43% actually did. So it doesn't really matter now that 41% say they are certain to vote.