this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2024
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I don't want to discount the findings too harshly, because I believe that democrats have a ton of issues with their voters in general and can only go on promising everything but delivering nothing for so long before people wisen up, but I do want to just gently remind everyone how accurate polling was in the 2016 and 2020 election cycles and its general decline among the population as a way to understand how people vote. Polling groups have not adapted to the times and frequently demand far too much out of a population which is overburdened and simply not interested in engaging with pollsters through archaic mediums and conventional means of identifying who is eligible to be polled are not applicable to a modern populace.
That's a fair point and it should be taken into account. But at the same time, this is Nate Silver. He's essentially the pre-eminent expert on polling, polling errors, and best practices in that regard. And what's more; when you imagine the different potential political factions amongst the African American community (a practice Dems try not to do); it's not hard to see why 2016 to today could have soured them significantly. Some examples from my family, friends, and extended family:
It's really not at all surprising that the current Dem ticket isn't going to win black voters at 90% clips.
It's odd to me that the reasoning given here and in the article for this problem for the Democrats is that they aren't acting Republican enough and they are too leftist. It is so clear that the Democrats have managed to do very few of the things they say, and what they do accomplish is either just what Republicans would do, or hamstrung by the Republicans and media blitzed. That's why they lose ground. Becoming Republican will also lose them different ground. It doesn't feel like the data should need an explanation in the first paragraph like that, it skews the interpretation of what is pitched as objective.
I think all these economic and business interests are just desperate for the old Republican party back and are trying to sculpt the Democrats into it because they were close enough already. Probably successfully. It's pretty bleak all around.
Also I'm sorry I can't leave it, but are you saying that the BLM "cohort" prefer trump in there? I'm not going to say that anyone is enthusiastic about Biden, but Trump encouraged beat downs across the country and threatened to march the military on these folks. (Would have done it too if it weren't for the woke liberal adjenda of General Mark Milley).
For the most part the average Black voter doesn't identify as Liberal. And that makes sense when you think about it. The median Black voter is a rural or suburban 50+ year old who left the Republican Party because they endorsed the Southern Strategy, not because of conservative policy support. So being "more leftist" isn't really going to win more of the black vote. They're already winning the black vote that cares about "leftist" policies.
Added a highlight for the important part. The BLM cohort is not likely to vote for Trump this election. But they're also not likely to be energized to vote for Biden. And history shows us that unenthusiastic support leads to low turnout. And part of why they're so unenthusiastic is that the Dems ran the "Anti-BLM" ticket with Biden/Harris.