this post was submitted on 14 Feb 2024
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This isn't at all evidence-based, this is just a gut reaction and being an Ontarian I hear a lot more about what happens in my province that Alberta.
I find Doug Ford much scarier than Danielle Smith because I think he's more effective at destroying this country, more people would vote for his destructive policies than hers (which are more clearly socially regressive), and I could see him being successful at the federal level.
Higgs scares me too. I'm appalled by the devolution of trans rights in AB and SK, but politicians gunning to increase corporate power, gut the public sector, and reduce labour's power really unsettles me vis-a-vis the direction we're heading in.
Trust me, Smith is still taking enough time away from attacking the trans community to destroy healthcare and then sell it to her corporate friends. Same with education. As for unions, the secret wage limits Kenney imposed were just opening the door to Smith's plans.
That's been the Blue playbook for decades.
Smith won by just 1300 votes, if you look at the close ridings, and has done nothing but unpopular shit ever since - starting with an attack on CPP, which is a sacred cow to the most vote-y demographic. And it's still the first few months. So, yeah, she's not on track to re-election, to put it mildly.
...and yet, she'd get reelected today.
She would, and she will. Rachel Notley has stepped down because she knows she can't beat the UCP (or any single right-wing party), no matter what deranged psychopath is running it.
Worst of all, Poilievre is courting her hard - and has every intention of copying every one of her policies that can translate to the national arena.
I don't know, her numbers seem to have gone slightly downwards since the election, and like I said she barely scraped in. Keep in mind this is FPTP and most of the real rednecks are stacked in the same rural ridings.
It's more like anyone's game than hopeless.
Everything you say is true, I just don't believe in my heart that she would lose.
When she got the leadership nomination, we were cheering. "The UCP just lost the electiom by electing that psycho!"