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Betting markets think Michelle Obama is 3rd most likely to be the next president (I disagree but ymmv)
I don't know if it's a betting market or markets. I checked the thread - I don't know the ultimate source.
this post was submitted on 10 Feb 2024
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chapotraphouse
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I've made out well on prediction markets in the past, but POTUS is one I won't touch personally. Trump for GOP nominee in '16/'24 is just free money (absent heart attack gun).
The state of Trump's health is unknown. He might live another 10 years or he might die from a natural heart attack in the next five minutes.
I made a killing for a while on Manifold (a fake money prediction market) based primarily on a strategy of "nothing ever happens." And this sort of 7% bet on a nonsense tail-end probability really reminds me of why that worked.