North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers, which it could use to kill many thousands in just an hour, even without resorting to chemical or nuclear weapons. Researchers assessed the magnitude of this threat across five attack scenarios, using estimates of the number of North Korean artillery systems, the population densities of potential target areas, and assumptions about the locations of people at the time of the attacks (outdoors, indoors, and below ground). The strike scenarios assessed were (1) five minutes against a major industrial target, (2) one minute along the DMZ, (3) one minute against downtown Seoul, (4) one hour along the DMZ, and (5) one hour against downtown Seoul. Estimated total casualties from the attacks ranged from about 4,500 to more than 200,000. The authors conclude that because so much harm could be done so quickly, the United States and South Korea should try to avoid military provocation cycles that could lead to these attacks.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/north-korean-bunkers-will-complicate-any-us-military-operation-177000

North Korea is believed to have hundreds of artillery-concealing caves just north of the DMZ. Known as Hardened Artillery Sites, or HARTS, these are usually tunneled into the sides of mountains. An artillery piece, such as a 170-millimeter Koksan gun or 240-millimeter multiple-launch rocket system, can fire from the mouth of the cave and then withdraw into the safety of the mountain to reload. These sites are used to provide artillery support for an invasion of South Korea or direct fire against Seoul itself. As of 1986, and estimated two hundred to five hundred HARTS were thought to exist.

IIRC, our estimate is that it'd take something like a week to knock all the artillery in range of Seoul out, which means that a bunch of people in South Korea die.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-south-us-nuclear-war.html

Even the most limited strike risks staggering casualties, because North Korea could retaliate with the thousands of artillery pieces it has positioned along its border with the South. Though the arsenal is of limited range and could be destroyed in days, the United States defense secretary, Jim Mattis, recently warned that if North Korea used it, it “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes.”

A bunch of people in North Korea die.

The North Korean regime falls. North Korea has a per-capita GDP about 3% of South Korea and speaks the same language. Not many are going to stay in North Korea if the borders go down. Now you have a huge flood of people in South Korea. Consider the outflow from East Germany to West and that East Germany had about 65% of the GDP-per-capita that West Germany did.

My guess is that South Korea probably isn't going to be super-enthusiastic about all that.

And it's not gonna un-supply the weapons.

[–] tal@lemmy.today 4 points 2 years ago

Also, one other point. South Korea has also supplied Ukraine with artillery rounds. Not directly, mind, for diplomatic reasons. But they transferred some of their shell reserves to the US, and the US transferred some American reserves to Ukraine.

https://www.technology.org/2023/12/15/south-korea-is-supplying-huge-amounts-of-ammunition-to-ukraine/

South Korea is Supplying Huge Amounts of Ammunition to Ukraine

Sadly, due to a long period of virtual peace, European ammunition manufacturers stayed pretty much dormant. Europe is trying to ramp up the production of ammunition, but keeping up with artillery usage in Ukraine is not possible at the moment. The US is the key 155 mm shell supplier to Ukraine, but the second country on that list is actually South Korea.

South Korea spent decades preparing for a potential breakout war with its northern counterpart. South Korea has hundreds of thousands of artillery shells in its stockpiles and they happen to be the desirable 155 mm. This is because South Korea uses the same ammunition standards as NATO countries.

Having these standards in place ensures that in the case of a war allied countries can help each other. Japan, Taiwan and multiple other countries that are not members of NATO rely on the 155 mm artillery. The Washington Post reported that South Korea is a larger supplier of ammunition for the war-ravaged Ukraine than all European countries combined.

Ukraine needs an astonishing number of shells per month. Ukraine frequently fires 6-8 thousand rounds per day and this is low compared to the first year of the war. Ukraine’s demand for artillery shells exceeds the manufacturing capacity of NATO countries. And this is where South Korea can help. Indirectly.

South Korean law prohibits providing weapons to countries at war. Ukraine is obviously a country at war so the help of South Korea has been described as indirect. It is not entirely clear what that means, but there are speculations that the South Korean shells are being brought into the US to replenish the stockpiles after American shells were sent to Ukraine.

In other words, South Korean ammunition is allowing the US to send more shells to Ukraine instead of going directly to the country at war. We’ve already seen a similar deal with the Swiss Leopard 2 tanks – because Switzerland is a neutral country, its weapons cannot go to a country at war, but can be sent to Germany to free up their tanks to fight in Ukraine.

[–] Aidinthel@reddthat.com 5 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Fyi, any invasion of North Korea would also involve a war with China, just like last time. The Chinese government likes having a buffer between them and all the US troops in the south.