this post was submitted on 18 Jan 2024
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No, we’ve been ‘minutes’ from midnight for decades now. Practically, nothing currently going on is very likely to end in a nuclear exchange of any scale. The only possible conflicts would be Ukraine, where the Russians have been very clear signaling in that they have not changed their no first use policy, and Iran-Pakistan, where neither nation could possibly have more than a handful of and two hundred warheads respectively. Not only would that not be a gobal apocalypse, but unless things wildly escalate to a full on nationwide ground invasion they arn’t going to be used.
Practically, if nukes are used it isn’t going to be a surprise but the result of a prolonged ground invasion, and because even then the nuclear taboo is stronger than ever and Iran or North Korea getting off a small bomb before getting every government building leveled by conventional weapons is not a nuclear apocalypse unless you are unluckily enough to live in Seoul or Islamabad.