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As much as I wish it weren't the case, I do think that as a matter of following the rule of law, Trump has a very strong case here.
Did he engage in insurrection? Obviously, yes. But "obviously" isn't how courts work. Courts have a process to follow, including a decision of whether guilt is found or not by the triers of fact. That hasn't happened here.
The Supreme Court is not a trier of fact—only the lower courts can do that. There are so many different cases against Trump currently I don't actually remember what they are about, but I presume there's at least one ongoing where, if he is actually found guilty, it would be very, very reasonable to, as a matter of law, conclude that the 14th applies. But until that happens, a trier of law would be very reasonable in finding that a decision by a member of the political executive to simply declare Trump is an insurrectionist is invalid.
There is (or may be) a counter-argument to this. My understanding is that the 14th amendment was created specifically to keep Confederates out of office, after the Civil War. And as far as I'm aware (not having ever studied any American history—going purely on cultural osmosis), they were not tried and found guilty either. So there is precedent for declaring someone an insurrectionist as far as the 14th is concerned without triers of fact in a court making that decision.
Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer. I'm not even an American. I just have an amateur interest in common law legal systems.
As a matter of technicality, you are both legally and historically illiterate. Based on this argument a trial court would have to rule on whether every single presidential candidate was over the age of 35, and a natural born citizen in order to qualify for office. That is OBVIOUSLY not the case as those provisions are self-executing. It is also obvious that based on the plain language of the constitution that the 14th Ammendment is self-executing as well. It is another LEGALLY STIPULATED PRECONDITION OF ELIGIBILITY FOR OFFICE.
However, many members of the current Supreme Court have made it clear that they consider both law and precedent to be entirely permeable, despite their strongly worded assertions to the contrary. So because of that, I also expect them to put forth some novel legal theory as to why they must go against their own publicly stated legal philosophies to allow Trump to stay on the ballot, history and precedent be damned.
How did you come with that? No part of the 14th Amendment has EVER been "self executing". There's been an almost uncountable number of court cases involving the 14th Amendment, including many of the most famous ones. I see no reason why Section 3 is somehow different than any of the others.
In the most famous use of Section 3 there WAS a conviction on a charges of espionage before a sanction was applied.
The argument you are making is currently popular, because fuck Trump, but there is no historical basis for it and at least one example against it.
I suggest that you read up on it a little more. That article 3 is self-executing is not a controversial or extreme opinion and is well within the mainstream of legal scholarship. The SCOTUS may rule that it isn't, but that's going to be a tough nut to crack for its three conservative originalists since at its inception article 3 was clearly used to bar all former Confederate officers from holding federal office without the necessity of a trial and conviction.