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You're vastly overestimating Russia's capability and underestimating Europe Nato's capability. Russia can't even invade Ukraine, one of the poorest countries. There's no way they can take on Europe Nato in an actual war. And UK's and France's nuclear umbrella is plenty.
The only good part of your statements is number 4 where Russia acts as a terrorist state. There's no good way out of a nuclear power acting as a terrorist.
The Institute for the Study of War:
Provocations increase, a mistake is made, skirmishes break out, Russian make surprisingly quick (short term) advances, ...
They're likely to make significant gains in the Suwalki gap, especially if the US has defacto left NATO and the EU is divided (Wilders, Orban, etc.). Wikipedia:
...
In a scenario where the US has left NATO, and the EU is divided (Orban, Wilders, Le Pen, ...), would the UK or France risk starting a nuclear war over a small sparsely populated area in the Baltics? Russia might gamble that NATO would not be willing to risk nuclear armageddon, after they abandoned Ukraine.
TLDR: high risk. Important to dissuade Russian stupidity by increasing defense spending. Important that the US stays in NATO.
Seems like you don't understand the role of NATO.
Once one nation is attacked, all band together to fight the invader. They aren't going to just sit by and wait. It is explicitly stated that they won't. Even if Europe feels divided.
Because every single one of those nations knows that if NATO breaks, they will be the next target in Putins campaign of terror. And they will not be able to defend themselves alone. Even the right-wing politicians know this.
So if you think France or the UK will just sit by when a sparsely populated NATO area is invaded, then think again. Because if they don't then no country will help them when Putin arrives.
NATO is a pact of egoistic altruism. Help others to help yourself. Right-wingers are all about helping themselves.
Populists are surging across Europe and the western world.
We are commenting on an article about a right wing populist with ties to Russia called Trump. He likes to help himself. He's on record as saying NATO is dead and that the US wouldn't help NATO allies.
You will find similar articles about Wilders(the Netherlands), Le Pen(France), Orban(Hungary), Fico(Slovakia), Kneissl(Austria), Schroeder(Germany), Wilders(Belgium), Farage(UK), Salvini(Italy), AFD(Germany) and many many others who have (suspected) ties to Russia and/or China.
IRC Kneissl, the former Austrian foreign minister, now lives in St. Petersburg. Salvini's embarassed himself. Other populists have replaced them. Former German chancellor and mainstream politician Schroeder receives a million a year from Russian energy companies and continues to criticise the West, not Russia. He is also quite good at helping himself.
It's very scary, but all it takes for a mistake to happen, is for Russia to think that Europe and NATO is less united than it is, especially after a Trump win, populist gains, and Ukraine losing the war due to Western support drying up.