this post was submitted on 08 Jan 2024
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Genocide Joe is gonna win the election with a comfortable margin
Think about it, genocide and student loans are not gonna sway boomers or Gen Xers one way or the other
Trump's legal battles are gonna bog his campaign down and many of his supporters don't trust voting because of his "2020 steal" narrative
Housing prices and the line are up which means everyone in the top 30% income percentile who isn't online adores Biden
Biden will probably win with a slightly larger margin than last time
In reality Biden is going to perform very, very poorly.
The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was not being Trump. Okay, what Trump era policies has he reversed? What "progressive" policy has he pushed through that hasn't been immediately struck down by the courts or shelved in the House? Libs like to bring up Build Back Better, the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act. Yeah sure, whatever the fuck those even are. Ask the average American how those policies have materially improved their lives, and they couldn't tell you. He shit the bed with Afghanistan. Roe was killed on his watch. The concentration camps at the border are still open. We're financially on the hook for two foreign wars that are being waged by maniacs that have no true path to victory.
The majority of normal people think the economy is shit right now, and feel gaslit when they are told "
ackshually bidenomics is working and you're just wrong stupid poors lol 
" which is the narrative his campaign and the media have been pushing for months. No one is buying it.
The fact is, he's utterly failed to distinguish himself from his predecessor, a literal fascist. Without a major change in campaign and legislative strategy, he is done for. He cannot lose a single state that he won in 2020, and the threat of a second Trump term isn't enough to save him anymore. Also, thinking that Trump voters will stay home "because it's stolen anyway so why bother" is deranged magical thinking.
he certainly isn't going to ride in on a populist wave but I'm not convinced he'll lose either. People not knowing or caring about his pitiful policies is a double edged sword, they don't give a shit enough to know that his policies are terrible.
Not doing anything good is still better to most people than actively making things worse (not that biden isn't doing that, but it doesn't get covered like it did under trump), and frankly there's gotta be a contingent that just doesn't want to hear the media go back to full on trump derangement syndrome round-the-clock coverage.
I mean that's all true, but only American leftists care about that stuff, the vast plurality of the population are totally disengaged from politics and won't vote anyway, so none of the facts you mentioned matter to them
The actual freaks who vote like the fact Biden is a fascist, of course they don't use that word but to them Biden is "tough on crime", "tough on the ~~Arabs/muslims~~ terrorists", "doesn't take shit from the Kremlin Republicans"
And the the economy is doing good (line is up and housing is expensive), "the New York Times said so"
Old dude is gonna win it outright, it's 2004
Maybe. I think he's going to lose a lot of the youth vote. None of those things apply to them.
anecdotally I do know some people who've finally moved past "but if you don't voot blue you're voting for trump" in the past year or so. Not a ton, but a couple, and they aren't necessarily hardcore leftists either just done with genocide joe's shit
I think a lot of those people will start singing a different tune the closer the actual election gets and the more the media resumes talking about Trump.
The youth doesn't watch "the media"
"The media" ends up in front of you whether you watch it directly or not. Shit filters down into social media and online discourse.
There's a reason the youth are incredibly negative about Israel and it's not because they get their information from msnbc
Well yes one benefit of social media is us leftists get a bit of a voice on there too. But make no mistake MSNBC has their fingers in that pie too.
It's not even a youth vote anymore, the oldest millennials are in their 40s
Yeah I'm one of them lol
You mean the vote that matters the least?
Biden barely won and a big part of it was record voter turnout from younger voters
The narrative that young people don't vote fell flat on its face in 2020
If by youth vote you mean Gen z yea still not great, and not to fall for the trap of saying millenials are young but those groups everybody scoofs at make up the majority of voters now.
The youth vote might not matter, but youth support does. They contribute labor to these campaigns that would cost incredible amounts if the DNC had to pay people.
Lol if you say so
When was the last time it mattered? Maybe Obama? That's about it.
None of this is new though. There's been plenty of presidents who didn't deliver Jack shit but still won re-election. Obama was a total let down and he shit got a second term.
Nah. Biden's numbers have returned to pre Oct 7 levels. The corporate donors and the new suburban members of Biden's coalition don't care about genocide; his defense of Israeli terror probably redounds to his benefit. The economy is working for the people the economy is supposed to work for, inflation has slowed, and the fed will ease rates in the coming year, spurring sentiment and allowing young people into homes. The student loan policy has discharged billions, and income driven repayment frees kids from snowballing debt. Labor participation is up, labor is crushing w public polling, labor is winning concessions. No one remembers about Biden and the railroad, but they will see him again and again in ad spots standing w the auto workers. He is hawkish on the border, which dampens one of the few possible salient conservative talking points (his position is also quite popular). Bidens serious mistake was arguably, if one squinted, his most progressive -- fleeing Afghanistan.
Trump has a hard ceiling and little room to grow. His refusal to accept the 2020 results, along with self destructive culture war overreach, led Republicans to the worst midterm showing in modern history. Both remain albatrosses on the party's neck. Referenda on abortion restrictions have lost literally everywhere, and the issue will mobilize otherwise unenthusiastic dems in November. Trump, avoiding news cycles thanks anemic Republican challengers and geopolitical drama, will again become the center of national attention, and remind the electorate of how tired it is of him. He is looking at serious criminal cases, which are seen as legitimate (at least outside of the New York state one), and which touch on serious issues of constitutional order and democratic values. The liberal media is staunchly against him, and will use their networks to underscore Trump as existential threat. He very well could be jailed, reducing enthusiasm among sober conservatives.
Dems have won the last three election cycles. Hillary is not on the menu, Trump is a known quantity and is deeply disliked, and the current legal cases, unlike the Mueller matter, are compelling and understandable and are being prosecuted and undertaken by adversarial institutions. Unless the economy tanks (not impossible surely, given some global shock) this is going to be a slim but comfortable Dem W.
Everything else is wishcasting, hoping you can dunk on libs for not listening, but there will be no karma at the ballot box; the libs never needed you.
Which numbers are those? I'm not a fan of polling but it certainly points to Biden being very unpopular, even more unpopular than Trump at this point in the term.
Big
there.
I don't think its possible to call this election at the moment, but i do doubt he does better than in 2020. It'll be interesting to see what the turn out is compared to 2020 as well. I wouldn't be suprised if its lower on both sides
Definitely lower turnout on both sides but I think biden will hold on to his margins in total
The coming dem campaign against Arab Americans and Muslims in general will convert some reactionaries who soured on Trump the last 4 years, while Trump will still be talking about the "steal" and court minutiae
That sounds more realistic to me. Biden could win and he could hold his margins. I just doubt he does better, if he does win. I agree that overall the "steal" and court shit aren't great angles for Trump to maintain appeal to the Republican party as a whole. I'm not sure they'll pick up the swing reactionaries though
I'm not sure I exactly disagree with you but the wildcard here might be further inflation driven by supply chain disruption in the red sea... (whether it's real or just companies seizing on disruption to price gouge), or other escalation in the middle east leading the US to get directly involved or severely embarassed
Also people who aren't in the top 30% of income do absolutely still vote. At lower rates sure, but they do vote. in major elections turnout doesn't go below 50% until you get to severe poverty levels of income
Anythings possible and I'm not gonna pretend logical analysis is even meaningful when it comes to electoralism
That being said, he barely won last time and has worked hard to piss off union members, environmentalists, and anybody who is against genocide while completely failing to do anything about roe or student debts.
I don't see how he's picked up any new voters since barely winning and I'm sure there's millions of people who just vote for whoever isn't rhe incumbent since they didn't get rich in the last 4 years.
Yeah I've had similar thoughts and gotten similar pushback from people on here. Biden is polling bad rn cuz of general bad vibes, but the demos who actually turn out to vote are still comfortable with the status quo, and I think a lot of the angrier young people will get scared back into backing the blue once the election is closer and the media starts scare mongering about Trump again. Trump diehards are still gonna diehard but I think his support among the broader right is wavering a bit.
lol
It will tho, Trump's hogs want racial animus and anti-lib owning, courtroom drama is for Sorkin fans
Courtroom sketches and liberal pudents on TV controlling the output of information from the court is gonna bore the hogs to tears and again bog his campaign down
They hated him for he spoke the truth, and so on.
It's possible, but anything can happen before November. I'm not bothering to make any (real) predictions until like a week before the election, though I am hoping the year of four presidents ends up happening
just so we're clear that's biden dying, kamala replacing him, then trump wins the election then he's incapacitated and replaced by whoever?
Actually the Republicans are floating this idea that if Trump is constitutionally barred from taking office due to January 6th, in the case of him winning the election the White House goes to his VP pick.
though, to be the year of four presidents, this would all have to go down in the three weeks before J20 so I'd probably consider converting to Islam if it happened.
Hell, I'd convert to 4 different religions just out of respect to the big G if that went down like that.
Yeah I'm surprised with how much confidence people arguing here. I wouldn't bet money on either side, that's for sure.