this post was submitted on 19 Dec 2023
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With things as they stand right now, I don't see any outcome other than Trump winning by at least a solid 5 points in every state that matters.
I'm not holding my breath, but there could be some shake-ups e.g. with the Supreme Court rulings, or Jack Smith's federal case. Heck, Trump and Biden are both old as fuck. Anything could happen with the election still a year away.
If Trump got knocked out of the race, I could see Haley easily taking the W in both the nomination and general election (by an even wider margin than Trump). DeSantis is DOA, I can't see him winning the general under any conditions.
If Biden croaks, it's hard to say. I don't think Kamala could pull off a win against the front running republicans. They'd have to put up a new candidate, but are there really any? Honestly, to me it seems like the dems would rather lose than do anything that would be popular enough to secure them a win.