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Privacy advocate challenges YouTube's ad blocking detection scripts under EU law
(www.theregister.com)
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If that is successful, I would expect youtube to switch to simply checking if the ads were actually served to the user. That wouldn't require checking for adblock on the users computer. Of course the adblocker would just download the content and not display it if they did that.
Either that or merging the ad into the video stream itself. This would make it un-skippable, but would also be unblockable without stream processing (there are commercial skip options for ffmpeg and similar encoders, so not completely impossible, but much more work and more likely to mark real content as a commercial as well).
That's not true. Besides the point that people can skip any video content manually anyway, I already use a Firefox addon called "SponsorBlock for YouTube - Skip sponsorships", which is configurable and works for other sites as well. The skip points are community maintained, but with the help of AI it should be easy to detect ads automatically. The point is, there are already tools to help with skipping video encoded content.
There's nothing to skip if they overlay small ads while the content is playing.
On the bright side such small ads may be less annoying than full screen ads.