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Privacy advocate challenges YouTube's ad blocking detection scripts under EU law
(www.theregister.com)
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If that is successful, I would expect youtube to switch to simply checking if the ads were actually served to the user. That wouldn't require checking for adblock on the users computer. Of course the adblocker would just download the content and not display it if they did that.
Either that or merging the ad into the video stream itself. This would make it un-skippable, but would also be unblockable without stream processing (there are commercial skip options for ffmpeg and similar encoders, so not completely impossible, but much more work and more likely to mark real content as a commercial as well).