this post was submitted on 29 Oct 2023
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Deterrence via a show of overwhelming force never works? I strongly disagree, historically it has prevented significant numbers of wars and attacks, and I suspect it is the reason why in recent decades Israel has only been attacked via guerilla actions and not openly by hostile neighboring states. Pax Americana would not be possible if this didn't work.
Will it work in this instance? Hard to say, Palestinian reprisals seem hard to deter given that they persist despite how many times they have been overwhelmingly defeated or how many carrots and sticks Israel provides. I think this time the goals might be different though, I would not be surprised at all if they level the north of Gaza and move the wall after they've taken out Hamas targets there.
The latest news about Israel's intentions in Gaza seems unusual but not very specific:
I wonder what it means?
Deterrence and prevention are different from post facto responce, and show of force is different from application of force.
Consider what went wrong in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vitenam. Consider how many Indian lives it took to end the Indian wars the hard way. Consider the Black and Tans in Ireland. Consider what happened when the Nazis slaugthered whole villages. Consider the Sovietunion in that war (27 million lost out of a total population of 200 million)
Now find the cases, please, where actually sending the troops in helped in something like this.
And then take note of how limited the deployment were, or how special the circumstances.
Presumably Hamas was not completely finished with their efforts after October 7th.