this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2023
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chapotraphouse
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It's great how our models keep failing in the direction of "we underestimated how catastrophic this would be." That surely bodes well for the future.
I had that argument yesterday. We're creating predictive models based on extrapolating based on current trends and get totally tripped up by conditions that have never been previously observed. We're at a collective cognitive loose end where we need to be able to anticipate what's going to happen but don't have any precedent to draw on.
New unpredicted patterns gives us new data which gives us a better understanding of how the weather works, which gives us better models.