this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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Energy Agency Sees Peaks in Global Oil, Coal and Gas Demand By 2030 (www.nytimes.com)
submitted 2 years ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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I'll note that several oil majors have made big bets in the past few weeks to the effect that oil and gas consumption will continue to rise for decades to come. If we succeed in maintaining a civilization-supporting planet, people who have not divested from fossil fuels industry will lose a lot of money.

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[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

Hmm, looking briefly at IEA exec-sum plots for 'stated policies', only coal really peaks and that's about now (and in reality, imho, this depends mainly on the chinese construction bubble bursting, rather than intentional policy ). Oil and gas barely peak, just shift towards developing countries. Anyway trying to predict these things doesn't make sense, the question should be where do we want to go, not where are we going. So, time to update the IEA data in my own model...