There's a ton of information coming out from a bunch of different sources and it's difficult to keep track of who's said what and who has evidence of what. This thread is to keep track of who's making what claims, who has what evidence, and discussion surrounding those.
For top-level comments, please separate into two categories:
Evidence (videos, facts, circumstantial evidence, etc.) that we can validate, invalidate, or provide supporting sources for
Claims (IDF, Hamas, Western media, etc.) that we can prove or disprove using current evidence
=== 2023-10-19 ===
It's established fact that Israel was operating aircraft near the hospital, that Israel was striking targets near the hospital, that Israel had indicated that they would strike the hospital, that Israel had striked the hospital in the past, and that Israel had targeted multiple hospital staff in the days leading up to the strike.
It's currently up to debate, but many indications suggest that Israel's message has changed multiple times. The initial claim was that the attack was on Hamas operatives within the hospital. The claim afterward was that this was a Hamas misfire (using demonstrably falsified audio evidence).
The videos show that a single large explosion triggered whatever happened, not a sequence of smaller explosions or secondary detonations. The video circulating of a Hamas rocket "misfire" is more indicative of a MANPADS launch given multiple comparable flight paths from other MANPADS. It's a clear usage of a multi-pulse rocket motor, something Hamas does not have domestic capability for but does have access to through Iranian MANPADS. An Iranian Misagh-2 fires a missile with less than 2kg of explosives and less than 20kg of total weight.
At this stage, my most likely conclusion is that the damage was the result of an airburst bomb.
Final edit: I do not think these two videos depict the same event. Still weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart.
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17anen6/another_angle_of_the_hospital_explosion/ Timestamp: 19:59
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17an67c/video_by_israels_channel_12_showing_the_moment_of/ 18:59
Plus: The videos the IDF posted as proof: unsure of source: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714403025136017784 & AJ Arabic: https://nitter.net/IDF/status/1714442617201586220 show the time as 18:59.
Both videos claim to depict the same event. The first seems to strengthen the case it was not a misfired rocket, the second seems to strengthen the case it was a misfired rocket, due to where the rockets are fired in relation to the blast.
The 18:59 timestamped video does not show the single rocket(?) depicted in the two videos the IDF posted, or in the 18:59 static shot. Maybe its too low quality to be seen, but odd nonetheless. The IDF videos seem to claim that this single rocket was the misfire, but the Israeli tv show seems to claim it was one of the rockets from the salvo.
I'm honestly losing my mind here. The difference in time between the two blasts leads me to think that the 18:59 video from Israeli TV and AJ Arabic are the correct ones, and the 19:59 timestamped video is depicting another event, but what the fuck are the chances that two rocket salvos happened EXACTLY an hour apart, and an explosion on the ground takes place EXACTLY an hour apart.
edit: I removed this, but I'm adding it back. Were there two cameras? One with its time incorrect? The timestamps are similar, but there are characteristics of the videos which differ. One has a light flare and lots of bugs flying in front, and more information on the bright area by the road. One has no light flare or bugs, and less information on the road.
Something which contradicts this would the the lights on in the windows on the building. In one, there is a light on on the building to the right which isnt in the other, and the timing between blasts. So I am leaning to the same camera an hour apart.
edit 2: AJ says it happened at approx 7:30pm ("At least 500 people were killed in an explosion at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City at around 7.30pm on Tuesday"), which doesn't correspond to either timestamp.
The 19:59 video is definitely not the same one as the 18:59 and the explosion that happens in that video is not in the same location as the 18:59 video.
Yeah, I've come to the same conclusion. It is weird how such similar events happened exactly an hour apart.