this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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I agree that the invasion of Iraq was illegal and unjustified just as the invasion of Ukraine was, and it set a terrible precedent. If China would've been in the position to credibly fend off the invasion at that time (before it even started!) that would've been a great thing. Now I would say the same about Ukraine but the West didn't take the threat seriously enough back then.
A difference in outcome is imo that Iraq was a dictatorship to start with. When I talk to Ukrainian refugees now living here they tell me that they want to preserve the political freedoms they gained after the Maidan revolution. They don't want to become a puppet state similar to Belarus and many of them are determined to fight for that. Ukraine surely is far from a perfect democracy and it has it's share of nazis as all societies have. But who am I to tell the Ukrainians to just let it be, accept their defeat and flee while they still can? But the war is a terrible meat grinder and it should ne stopped ASAP. I wish for honest negotiations and that might even include some tough to swallow compromises for the Ukrainian side. But what's more important is that there needs to be a new security architecture that prevents future wars and works for all sides. The Ukrainians have been let down by all sides in the past as neither country from the West, nor Russia, who all guaranteed Ukraines security in treatys have met their obligations.
What 'political freedoms' did they gain? Specifically what freedoms did those of the Donbass gain? The right to no longer teach their native language? The right to be burned in their trade house? The right to be have artillery lobbed at their houses?
Belarus is not a 'puppet' state, it has more dictation around it's own policies than Ukraine does post-Maidan, and isn't actively selling all of it's assets to Russian corporations. Just because the Ukrainians you talk to are politically illiterate and filled with Western propoganda doesn't mean they are correct. Ukraine lost political freedom after Maidan because the game was specifically playing Russia off of the West for the benefit of the Ukrainian political elite. Post-Maidan it was still playing Russian interests off of Western interests, but now actively ignoring Russian redline policy and basic ethnic constitutional rights, a recipe for disaster and constant civil war. With the full-scale war now, it is totally capitulated towards Western demands, literally killing their own people in insane suicide drives, and selling off all fungible assets to the West.
Now, none of this was for the 'good of the Ukrainian people', either pre or post-Maidan, the game was always for the benefit of a small number of Ukrainians, but I don't see that changing anytime soon, and in fact, continuing to get worse, particularly as Ukriane continues to adopt privatization policies (policies first used to describe literal german Nazi policies) throughout their country. Liberal Ukrainians will not recognize the country they return to.
If we're already in illusionary politics land, here's my take on Donbass and Crimea. I don't care about their independence referendums. There's even a secessionist movement in Bavaria, demanding independence from Germany. Doesn't mean that any prick who thinks they deserve their own country should get one. How did the russians even end up there, if not by imperalist soviet policies which btw led to the deportation and death of millions who lived there before, e.g. Crimean Tatars. So Crimea belongs to the Tatars, right? Or no: Lets go back further. It belongs to the Greek who settled there before the Tatars! It's not like the Russians in Ukraine are some fucking indigenuous tribe whose customs and rituals deserve to be world heritage. While they should be treated with the same dignity as all citizens of Ukraine it's not like having a common language for teaching has anything to do with violating "ethnic constitutional rights".
In the end, the big majority of people in the Donbass would probably have preferred not to be occupied by unmarked troops sneaking into their homeland and afterwards being governed by idiotic strongmen who draft them for a war they never wanted.
Enjoy paying through the nose for heat this winter, you propagandized fool.