this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2023
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Collapse

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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

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James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, and Leon Simons - Global Warming is Accelerating. Why? Will We Fly Blind? (www.columbia.edu)
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by getoffthedrugsdude@lemmy.ml to c/collapse@lemmy.ml
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http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf

Abstract: Global temperature in the current El Nino exceeds temperature in the prior (2015-16) El Nino by more than the expected warming (0.14°C in 8 years) for the global warming rate since 1970 (0.18°C/decade). Proximate cause of accelerated warming is an increase of Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), but what caused that? Indirect evidence points to a decline in the cooling effect of human-made aerosols. Failure to measure aerosol climate forcing is partly compensated by precise monitoring of EEI details. However, there are no adequate plans to continue even this vital EEI monitoring – which will become even more important as humanity realizes its predicament and the fact that we must cool the planet to avoid disastrous consequences and restore a bright future for young people – let alone plans for adequate aerosol monitoring.

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[–] jsdz@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Suspicion that global warming was accelerating was created by the warming rate between the 1997- 98 and 2015-16 El Ninos

The suggestion of reading that much meaning into that little data strikes me as slightly reminiscent of all the talk of a global warming "hiatus" circa 2012, but it does seem like they have more to go on this time. Interesting things are said about aerosols and about NASA.

[–] getoffthedrugsdude@lemmy.ml 3 points 2 years ago

I wasn't sure if posting just Dr. Hansen's profile would be a relevant post here, but if you don't know who he is I would highly recommend seeking out some of his publications: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/