Fuck Cars
A place to discuss problems of car centric infrastructure or how it hurts us all. Let's explore the bad world of Cars!
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I think it only affects 20% of supply globally, so why can't we adapt?
Because most system are run on a "just in time" model of logistics that means you dont store enough stock to cover emergencies, because storing extra stock costs money and may depriciate in value. So instead you get only the exact amount you need, when you need it.
Since every system is basicslly optomized to this cutthroat, zero reduancy way, we cant really just "take the hit" when 20% of oil/food/etc disapears overnight. It would be like telling people to "just eat 20% less" or " just drive 20% less." Both good advive, but we are creatures of habit that build routines around systems, so when someone fucks a system over, it causes rippling chaos. So what happens when 20% of a daily resource goes away in our global, market economy? All prices go up up! Then people have to break habits, and/or start breaking politicians. Well, we are in stage 1 and barely in the bad polling/protest stage of 2.
I don't think oil is just in time, especially since most oil sailing the seas is crude and needs refining.
Car parts sure, oil, don't think so.
There are minimal buffers, regardless of the part of the cycle. Crude may need to be refined, but its just enough crude to refine just enough into gasoline just in time.
Even the "strategic reserves" that they released cant meet the demands beause those systems cant process the cached oil fast enough either. The US can only process something like 1 million barrels reserve/day, so its not comperable to a 15 million barrell/day disruption either.
Even the "safety system" cant keep up because Its just cut corners all the way down.
We can adapt and the process of doing that in capitalism involves prices rising and rising until people can't afford things and stop buying them, thus reducing demand.
That's super tough on people who don't have much money and they don't consume much anyway so when they tap out it doesn't reduce demand much. So prices need to rise enough to hurt the middle class in developed countries, meaning the lower classes everywhere else have a really shit time.
Meanwhile there are some oil uses that are completely unable to be reduced, such as emergency services, food distribution, etc so the govt will intervene in the market to ensure that happens. This means all non-essential sectors of the economy must reduce usage by significantly more than 20%.
Meanwhile every country's govt is doing everything it can to try to lock in 100% of their usual supply and some will succeed, leaving other countries to make much bigger cuts than 20%.
There will be lots of people making 100% cuts while a few make none. Humanity isn't great at sharing especially at a global level.
Pretty depressing hearing the media about it here. Countless people were killed in missile strikes across the middle east today, now we talk about the real issue, petrol prices have gone up slightly.