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I hate to break it to you, but MASA's goal is to establish a permanent base on the moon. Space X's public plans have ALWAYS been to get to Mars, and establish a permanent base there. This isn't science fiction, these are business plans, and they are already well underway.
The NASA moon base is planned to start before the end of the decade, so they aren't waiting very long. Judging by past NASA projects, it will take far longer that that, but it is out of the planning stages, and well on its way. They have astronauts up there in space right now.
And Space X is making progress, although they are concentrating more on their satellite deployments, because that will create a massive revenue stream that will fund everything beyond. But you can bet that if Musk sees us getting close to landing on the moon, he'll re-prioritize his focus on Mars.
The future space races won't be just among nations, it will be against Sociopathic Oligarchs, too, with entirely different motivations. And those Sociopathic Oligarchs cheat, so expect some dirty tricks.
There are no rules in space, anything goes.
I know what NASA's plans are.
But like I said, no billionaire or trillionaire is going to live COMFORTABLY in the moon or Mars anytime soon. In a few centuries? Perhaps. But not in the next 70-100 years.
Hate to break it to you but the NASA base is not going to be some sort of luxury hotel where people can just go. Its going to be a very uncomfortable and cramped scientific laboratory.
You are missing my point. I agree with you, space bases are going to be pretty sparse for a while, but the Sociopathic Oligarchs don't see it that way. They are picturing Dubai, Vegas, etc., and they have nobody around them to question that vision.
They'll have trade with Earth, and other bases, probably forever. No country is an island, all of them have to have trade with each other. No country on Earth is entirely self-sustaining, and bases on the Moon or Mars will be no different. Goods will be expensive, but that's okay, they can afford it, so gouge the shit out of them. Who cares if a Big Mac is $1000, they can afford it.