this post was submitted on 31 Mar 2026
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The average person, even well meaning, is missing a good 50 years of context to understand the situation here. I’d argue this starts in 1969 with the Cairo Agreement.
The Lebanese government, besides being completely corrupt and incompetent, is under extreme pressure from the US. It was basically given the ultimatum of either starting a civil war with the Hezb or being considered one and the same as it by the US and its buddies, about a month ago. It very gently picked the first option, announcing that it will work to make the Hezb a political-only entity and not a para/military one (and not go guns blazing civil war). It’s, regretfully, probably the more peaceful option.
Becoming country non grata by the US and the subsequent sanctions would literally kill the poorer half of the population, so that’s a non starter. Starting an armed civil war, against an entity that is extremely controversial but still openly celebrated for liberating the exact land being annexed now, if you can believe it, is also not good!
If the Lebanese army throws a single strand of hay in a southernly direction the entire Lebanese government is getting nuked to high heaven. We are in a uniquely terrible situation where our best friend the US has us by the balls and also is completely loyal to the crazy neighbor who very openly considers us rats to be eradicated. The Lebanese army’s only job is to do literally anything but fight the enemy, because if it does, we are dead. We are fertilizing kibbutz plantations.
Do not look up the size of the US embassy in Lebanon, it’s completely normal, just a normally sized diplomatic mission for paperwork, don’t worry about it.