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I saw an interesting video where there was some frame by frame analysis from multiple angles, and you can see a flash that seems to be from a gun firing reflected off a window, and when you account for the distance and time of flight, the bullet was travelling too slow to be a 30-06.
And my layer to this conspiracy is that it was a 30-06, but it was moving slower than expected. The (alleged) shooter said he grabbed his grandpa's gun specifically because it was seldom used and unlikely to be noticed as missing. It's logical that he was using grandpa's old ammo too, thus the firearm was not performing nominally. This explains the neck shot too. The shooter was going for the head, and the bullet dropped further than expected because it was traveling slower.
Honestly I actually kinda like your hypothesis. Between questionable maintenance due to low use and old ammo it may have very dropped the muzzle velocity of the bullet enough to cause the effects seen. Mind you without the rifle and rounds used being tested it's still just guess work, but it does fit the criteria for Occam's Razor since it basically only makes one assumption with the current evidence.
Still won't go with anything conclusively since the authorities are known to lie and the investigation was fucked up basically immediately. But I also don't really care outside of curiosity, I'm glad the shithead is dead and I'm happy it was from him getting shot.