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There is some truth to it, that exit tax is not calculated on future income, but is calculates on one's net worth, including real estate, investments, and retirement funds. They are basically looking for people who have chunks of unrealized gains accrued while still citizens, then file to leave the country so that they can sell those assets without paying capital gains taxes on them. So, before leaving they make you pay taxes as if you sold it all.
Yes, there are exceptions and exclusions that make it so most non-rich people wouldn't owe anything, but it's still up to you to prove that.
There are services that specialize in this, I found this one with a good writeup here. Note that they are looking to sell their service here, so may be overestimating the impact of non-compliance.
How many Americans do you think have a net worth of over $2 million?
Not many, but more common than you think, particularly in HCOL areas where real estate prices have spiked, and even a modest house is over $1M. You might think "Yeah, but those folks have no equity", but there are plenty of people who bought in 20+ years ago who are sitting on all that equity but can't do anything with it until they sell.
Also, retirement assets count in that, and even though we see headlines talking about how unprepared most people are for retirement, there are plenty of people who are.
Add in the fact that most countries won't hand out residency to anyone unless they are in a key field, and you will find that the people with the means to decide to emigrate are often the ones that have these assets in the first place.
Also, plenty of people that would renounce American citizenship are probably doing so because of tax concerns. The US is the only country that taxes citizens even if they don’t live there. You could make all your income in another country and the US still wants a piece. For people that make a modest wage in another country, there are exceptions to avoid double taxation. But, if you make a sizable part of your income from capital gains, being taxed on that when you don’t even live in the US probably becomes a motivating factor.
Which has a price:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reed_Amendment_(immigration)
What's the share of wealthy Americans who have renounced their citizenship?
This makes it about 50,000 since 2020 who had to pay extra. How many have renounced overall?
https://www.savoryandpartners.com/news/american-millionaire-citizenship-renunciations
The list of all renouncements:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterly_Publication_of_Individuals_Who_Have_Chosen_to_Expatriate