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And potentially also SK, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, etc.
It really would be like the dumbest possible thing the US could do.
He backed off Greenland. Taiwan would be an order of magnitude worse. The US could occupy any country on earth (maybe not China, without some Roman level war crimes) But it would be the end of us.
Hahaha, no.
The US could invade maybe two countries with a GDP around 1/4 ours, and actually persistently occupy them for maybe a few years.
Our economy is crashing extremely rapidly, we've functionally lost the ability to build new warships or aircraft in anything approaching a timely or affordable manner... and, because we have decided to tariff and threaten or militarily attack basically everyone everyone...
All of our supply chains for a great deal of our fancy schmancy military tech doesn't work any more.
You cant build complex guided missiles and computer chips and sensors that aim them or night vision goggles without access to a wide array or rare earth minerals, most of which China basically has a near total monopoly of.
We don't have the native industrial base to build anywhere near everything we would need to, to actually autarkicly sustain our own war machine.
... we can't even feed or house our population at a reasonable cost anymore, our internal infrastructure is physically falling apart, and our cybersecurity is beyond laughably comprimised.
There is no way this country would 'win' trying to occupy Taiwan.
China + Japan + SK + all of goddamned SEA + potentially even Australia vs US = we fucking lose hard.
We may be able to get away with some neo-Monroe Doctrine bullshit for a while.
And keep funding genocides in the ME, and doing random airstrikes and spec ops shennanigans in poorer countries.
Thats about it.
I meant we could occupy them like we occupied Iraq. We would win the military confrontation. The occupation would break us.
We could do it once, maybe twice or three times if the countries are small and weak, but it would break us. The rest of the world would adjust. We would all be poorer but the US would be fucked. Trump doesn't understand that we built a military too expensive to actually use. It made sense if we wanted to avoid conflict, and casualties, while still being top dog and getting our way, but actually going in and occupying territory is medieval thinking.
No, we would not win an invasion of Taiwan.
Realistically, no one would, it would probably basically result in either a nuclear exchange or some kind of mass infrastructure denial kind of attack, around many parts of the world.
But uh, we only have usually about 3 carrier groups in/around China/Taiwan at any given time.
And... our wargame scenarios only look maybe/probably winnable for fending off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan... if we have all of regional our allies to rely on.
If they are all against us, we lose badly.
China has more missiles and aircraft than we can hope to overcome without allies.
If... we were going to... do, what, a marine / paratrooper invasion... of Taiwan...
Where in the fuck would we stage that?
Okinawa?
You can't move the numbers of troops needed to do an invasion of Taiwan without a lot of people noticing... and we'd immediately become enemies of all the places we could launch the assault from, if we somehow did manage to move a few hundred thousand infantry without being noticed.
Like, it took us around a year to move everything over the countries neighboring Kuwait and Iraq, back in the Gulf War.
You can't just steam a marine invasion flotilla from Hawaii to Taiwan.
Everyone has satellites. They'd see it. When we got near a staging port, world news would be going insane with 'wtf is the US doing with this armada?'
This is why I said its like the dumbest possible thing we could do.
We are pretty much guaranteed to lose.
We could pull off something like that against smaller Central or smaller South American countries... not Taiwan.
That's true, Taiwan is armed to the teeth and our regional partners would not be partners if we actually went psychotic and tried to invade. Our supply lines are way longer than China and all the logistics in the world won't help if we don't have bases to operate from.