this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2026
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The polls are looking better and better, fortunately.
It's improving but NDP is still polling 5 points behind in Calgary, which is concerning
Where are you getting that number? The 5% lead shown here is for the whole province, including rural areas. Although I guess Edmonton is in there too.
https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/alberta-ucp-ndp-locked-in-tight-race/
Huh, thanks. That's actually more recent than the polls in the graph, I wonder when they're going to get it put up.
Calgary is definitely going to be the battleground. Having a prominent former Calgary mayor as candidate should help at least a bit. I can't say it's impossible we'll elect her again, but I can say all her ideas are unpopular, and that her messaging isn't strong.
The graph is a projection based on an aggregation of polls, it already accounts for it. For context, it's from https://338canada.com/alberta
No, it ends on Dec. 20th. It looks like your link is from 2026. They haven't added it yet.
Read about his methodology - this is not a graph of every poll, it's a projection on the aggregate.
Oh you're right! My bad, sorry.
Huh, so I wonder why the graph lags behind the input data, then. The methodology page explains how they weight it, mostly.
He manually updates the projections, though I'm not sure why he doesn't update the Alberta one very often, could just be that the data is not very good with so few polls being done.
And none of that matters. Because here in Alberta we vote by color and not policies. And yes I used American spelling on purpose.
That pretty much is the issue, yep. If she wins, it's because she isn't so totally unacceptable that she breaks the pattern.
Context:
Yup. Last poll on Dec. 20th, too. Presumably the trend has continued.
Here's to hoping it continues! 🍺