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Russia can't even handle Ukraine. What are they going to do against the rest of NATO, even without the US?
Well, Russia is sort of holding back. They have tactical nukes, not sure how many of those nato has without the US. And going ballistic doesn't end well for anyone. But Russia need the land of major nato members. They will pick on non-nato countries mostly, and more often they will do it by cutting off trade routes and such. Maybe they use thier now seasoned military to pick off some minor nato members, just to distract Nato from everything else. With the US pulling back from the international stage, Russia and Chine can divvy up a lot of the world.
Not using nukes isn't holding back its not inviting armageddon.
They aren't going to invade the UK, but they want them out of the EU. You sabotage your enemy as much as possible, even if you're not going to war immediately. Sun Tzu stuff, when your enemy is larger than you, divide them. Take down the strongest military alliance (or cut in half if you want) in history thats been in place for 70 years, yeah that's a huge massive jizz in your pants accomplisment. Your entire framing is frankly wrong,
When the US briefly revoked command and control (think, satellite connections, real time intelligence, missile warning etc) Ukraine suffered heavy casualties quickly. Were thr US to walk away, neither Ukraine or NATO has those same capabilities. NATO minus US vs Russia, in the immediate future would be incredibly bloody and possibly fall in Russia's favour.
Russia doesn't have those capabilities either. They duck tape consumer grade GPS units for cars into their fighter jets built in the 70s. The war in the Ukraine has exhausted aka destroyed a huge amount of Russian equipment. Tanks, jets, ships, and fucking subs. They are using fucking donkeys for Christ sake to supply the front line with ammo.
NATO minus the USA vs Russia would be tough but if one or two NATO countries fight like Ukraine has then Russia is toast. And if NATO sticks together that is.
Two things can be simultaneously true:
Russia has suffered substantial loss of materiel etc.
Russia still has effective command and control systems. Whereas the EU depends heavily on America for advanced targeting (think the Ukranian long range missile strikes on refineries in recent months.)
Here's a fairly accessible article on some of the difficulties/timelines for a post American NATO:
(Notable quote from someone wiser than myself "We’re almost completely dependent on U.S. intelligence for satellite and everything that goes with it")
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/02/25/mind-the-gaps-europes-to-do-list-for-defense-without-the-us/
Break it up using his puppet in the white house.