this post was submitted on 09 Jan 2026
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Decades ago I considered opening a restaurant with my sister.
We built a business plan. We studied menu design, food waste calculations, dollars per seat per hour, advertising costs, time to profit, and a million other things.
Our business analyst said that 2/3 of new restaurants went under in their first year, m8ostly because NOBODY THINKS ABOUT THOSE THINGS!
So every time I hear about how a billion restaurants will be going under, I remember that they are almost all started by people with three great recipes and no clue.
75 years ago there were such few restaurants that margins were decent and owners could pay their staff well. A mid-range restaurant could have chefs and even servers earn decent wages.
Now there are 100× more restaurants per capita than there were back then, and margins are razor-thin and staff are being paid peanuts.
Even when thinking of those things it's such narrow margins! Seems like a nightmare!