this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2025
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How often does this situation lead to homicide when the genders are swapped?
https://www.rstreet.org/commentary/the-crime-and-safety-blind-spot-are-random-acts-of-violence-at-an-all-time-high/
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/forensic-insights/202112/the-truth-about-stranger-homicide-and-whos-really-at-risk
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/expanded-homicide
It is very, very difficult to actually answer your specific question with existing data.
Thats why I said roughly in my original comment.
However, in general, only something like 10% to 20% of homicides in the US are committed between strangers, people who have never before interacted with each other, people who have maybe only met a few times in passing, people who would not say they really knew the other person, prior to just meeting.
The vast majority of homicides are commited between people with significant, pre-established relationships... family members, long time friends, husbands/wives, established boyfriends/girlfriends, employers/employees, etc.
Its even more difficult to try and break down 'chance of being murdered by a stranger' by sex/gender.
Basically, men are more likely to be murdered in something like a mugging, by a stranger, and women are more likely to be murdered by someone they already know and have a relationship with, than by a stranger.
So, to attempt to roughly answer your specific question:
Roughly the same for both, in as much as the chances of any person being murdered, at all, in anyway, by anyone, in a given year, are...
... approximately 0.000064.
... or, about 1 out of 15,624.
In comparison, you're roughly twice as likely to die in a car accident, in a given year.
Men in general are much more likely to be murdered than women.
And men in general are also much more likely to be murdered by a stranger, than women are.
For women, its the devil you know, for men, its the devil you don't.
But, neither of those facts really shed too much light on this specific situation and questiom of yours, as they are not specific enough.
If you can actually find a data set, a source that describes the level of granularity amd detail required to answer your specific question;
"how often are women murdered by men they've never previously met, vs how often are men murdered by women they've never previously met"
... well then I'd love to see that data.
But in general, the chances of being murdered are very, very low, in any kind of context, for any kind of person... it would require an exceptional data set or meta study to even suss out if there is a statistically significant, numerical answer to your question, beyond 'roughly the same.'
EDIT:
You could also ask:
How often does the original situation lead to suicide?
... If you're worried about harm reduction, in general.
Hmm. I am aware that the vast majority of femicides are committed by men the victim knows, namely male relatives and partners, but I think that most women tend to avoid being too honest/blunt with men out of the fear of violence.
I mean, yes, on a global scale, femicide, the specific homicide of a woman, because they are a woman, is a serious, persistent problem.
But... in... economically developed, generally more wealthy and stable countries?
Much less so, broadly.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/femicide-rates-by-country
Again, none of this data is perfect, there are a lot of gaps, but its probably reasonably accurate as a starting point.
Paraguay: ~19 / 100,000
Central African Republic & Antigua and Barbados: ~10 / 100,000
Jamaica & South Africa: ~9 / 100,000
Compare that to:
US: ~3 / 100,000
Mexico: ~6 / 100,000
Canada: ~1 / 100,000
Thats all femicides, out of 100,000 women, per year.
So... in the US... a man is more likely to just be murdered, for any reason ( ~ 9 / 100,000 men ) than a woman is, for any reason ( ~ 2.5 / 100,000 women ).
A US Man is also more likely to be just murdered for any reason than a woman is to be specifically femicided ( 9 vs 3 out of 100k ).
Something like ~90% to 80% of women who are killed, who are homicided, are killed by someone they know well, often an intimate partner, which often is a femicide...
... But a guy randomly, awkwardly failing at flirting or just communicating with a woman... is what the stats categorize as a stranger, not an intimate partner, family member, etc.
So... the idea that random men who approach women are... likely to homicide them?
Basically no, if anything its the sort of relationship opposite, statistically, women need to worry about the men they're already in substantial relationships with, more so than a rando they've never met before...
... as women are homicided by strangers far, far less than men are.
IPV is a signifcant proprotion of violence done to women in the US, but its a significant proportion of ... just a smaller pie chart, than the amount of violence done to men, if we're going by violence = murder.
But... how often are men homicided by women strangers?
I genuinely have no idea.
Like I said, I can find 'men killed by strangers' but not 'men killed by strangers who are women'.
I don't know if that data exists, in a readily available format... theoretically I could try to do my own comprehensive meta analysis of existing data sets, but normally people get paid to do that level of research, lol.
Women who are homicided in the US are more likely to specifically be femicided, killed because they are a woman... but again, thats mostly from established existing partners, not randos... and they're also just about 2.5x less likely than men to be murdered, for any reason.
I honestly don't think anyone even bothers to study or keep data on 'androcide', the specific killing of a man because he is a man, a man killed by a woman he is in a substantial relationship with.
That's what I mean by... there's no data specific enough to attempt to actually answer your question, which I guess could also be roughly approximated as 'what are femicide rates vs androcide rates?'