this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2025
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Would You Rather

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Welcome to c/WouldYouRather, where we present you with the toughest, most ridiculous choices you never knew you had to make! Would you rather have a third arm that's only useful for picking your nose, or be able to talk to animals but only if they're wearing hats? Yeah, it's that kind of vibe. Come for the absurdity, stay because you've clearly got nothing better to do with your life.

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WYR $1 million now or every day your chances of winning $1 billion increase by 0.005%? (lemmy.dbzer0.com)
submitted 1 week ago by SnokenKeekaGuard@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/wouldyourather@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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If you choose the first option, $1 million will be immediately added to your bank account, however if you choose the second option, starting from today everyday your chances of winning $1 billion increase by 0.005%. If you accept your chances will start at 0% and keep increasing.

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[–] Eq0@literature.cafe 1 points 1 week ago

I would use this definition, that is in the OP, the probability given is the one of having won the draw by that time: the first year when the draw happen the probability is 0, the second year the probability of having won is 9.125%, while the probability at the third year is 18.25%. This is the sum of the probability of having won either of the two draws (you can’t win more than once).

If you want to interpret the probability as a one time probability, then I agree with you.