this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2025
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Hmm, the graph given is sus. The trend starts before the AI sector was really a thing, like literally 2010.
If I just look at the extra degree to which it came back after covid, it's maybe double the dotcom bubble and a lot smaller than 2008.
Edit: To explain a bit more,
they're basically assuming that any growth past the corporate interest rate plus 2% is bullshit. If they've drawn the graph correctly that actually predicts the 'oughts recessions pretty well, but past 2010 looks a lot like it has meaningless drift.The big question, when it comes to whether to buy into this, is if it works across the last century. Since it's a simple, old idea and it's not everywhere I'm guessing no, and they did some strategic cropping.