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This is exactly what people said about cars, phones, TVs, internet, social media. New technologies dont simply vanish and if you think AI will you havent been keeping track of its evolution at all.
Please point out to me where I said or implied LLMs will vanish
You said they will end up as just a tool for software developers which given their current range of usage is not far from equivalent to vanishing
You are blinded by survivorship bias. The technologies you name have persisted because they have turned out useful over time. Many others have not. Nobody uses any more radioactive toothpaste even if radioactive quackery was all the rage in 1920.
LLMs are a timesaver. I have seen the uptake where I work (monitoring via DLP) as a tool, they are useful and the word amongst staff is spreading, so I doubt the tech is going away, even if it's just reduced to spitting out letters and simple power shell scripts.
Now if it can be offered at a sustainable, profitable price (the current subscription cost per seat is ridiculous). That's another question.
The thing is not that it can save time for a few applications, but that it's advantages are dramatically overblown.
Yes but that's not the same as being the next radioactive toothpaste. As a product, it's going to continue to exist.
That's the second problem with AI. At the moment, the industry is highly subsidized by billions of investment money. In the long run, prices will have to cover the cost and revenue expectation of investors.
And no one is willing to pay what it will actually cost. It is unbelievably expensive for results that are mediocre and absolutely useless for critical applications due to the error rate.
And did radioactive toothpast have hundreds of billions in investments and a million jobs dedicated to it?
The Dutch Tulip Mania of 1634-1637 certainly had a lot of investments in prices corrected for inflation, and a lot of people working at growing tulips.
The funny thing is that by now, people do know exactly that AI is in a mega-bubble, but still think that they can grasp into that mixture of fire, whirling glass shards, and falling knives, and make a gain from the bubble.
It's also what they said about Tamagochis and Furbies, so there's that.
Who needs moaning, hungry, attention-starved tamagotchies when we all have moaning, battery-hungry, and attention-starved smartphones? Do you leave your little smart phone alone at home YOU MONSTER?
You're right. Tech doesn't vanish. But it becomes oversaturated constantly. The video game crash of 1983, the dot com bubble, blockchain, NFTs, etc.
Yes, usually growth is not infinite and sometimes theres crashes, but if the trend continues after a crash and far surpasses the level before, I dont call that a bubble. Look at bitcoin. It crashed a few times and every time it rises back to twice its peak. You cant call video games a bubble either, theyre more popular than ever. There are fluctuations in the market, which is perfectly normal for any investment thats not stable.
All hype, no substance.