this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2025
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Possibly, but I don't see Google doing that either. It's not about where the app comes from really. The thing they are going to restrict is the developer. A developer can not have their app installed on a certified phone, regardless of where the user got the app, if the developer is not registered.
So, since there are no regulations to allow a user to install apps from any chosen developer, only from any chosen app store, there likely will be no regulatory recourse like Apple is facing as mentioned by the OP.
My first point is, in other words: From Google's pov, the F-Droid team is "the developer" who's key and personal information Google would request to allow installing apks with their signature on Android devices.