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I don't understand. If he can't even take down the Ukraine, how does he expect to take on NATO nations?
Flying a spy plane over the Baltic with transponders off isn’t random; it’s deliberate pressure. These flights let Russia probe NATO’s readiness, time responses, and gather electronic intelligence when allied radars and comms light up. They also normalize risk: forcing constant intercepts drains resources and tests cohesion among allies.
At home, the Kremlin can showcase defiance; abroad, it signals that even after Sweden joined NATO, Russia will not accept being boxed out of the Baltic. The aim is not a direct clash but erosion of deterrence, unity, and stamina. By staying in the “gray zone,” Moscow keeps initiative, trying to distract support for Ukraine, stress-test NATO, and look for weak links it can exploit.
it also keeps defensive forces sharp, by giving them practice, and strengthens cohesion by highlighting the shared threat NATO protects its members from.
the Soviets did this for decades. it's still part of their military doctrine, I guess. though it seems counterproductive to me.
Yeah all countries do that, but the end game still doesn't make sense to me.
There may not be a clear end game, but sometimes just stirring things up is the point. It creates openings and exposes weaknesses, and that in itself can serve as a strategy. He has very little to risk compared to what he might gain, so constant provocation makes sense from his perspective.