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Thank you.
Many folks fail to realize that it absolutely doesn't hurt Putin to send another one or two million of his people to die for his delusions of grandeur. It's not like he's gonna have to start selling his mansions because Russia goes through economic hardships or that his own kids gonna get drafted.
If Russia did things that are logical - they wouldn't invade Ukraine in the first place, not to mention that their invasion and annexations are illegal even by Russian laws and constitution that Putin can rewrite at his whim, but absolutely nobody cares. So expecting a country that breaks its own laws while being an autocracy to follow logic is foolish at best.
Yeah. I'm not exactly a geopolitics-man, but my best guess for what's going on with Putin and Russia's strategy here is:
I think the combination means that he's just kind of telling his military to do whatever, including invading Ukraine thinking it would go about the same way as Georgia, Crimea, Chechnya, and the US elections. I do think he benefits from a certain amount of native cunning in this particular brinksmanship with NATO, and of course it doesn't take too much detailed understanding of facts on the ground to just fly some planes around in their airspace and flip people off, but also I think in general this latest chapter of Russia is just a pretty good demonstration of why authoritarianism doesn't make for effective countries.