this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2025
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NonCredibleDefense
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I told my wife just yesterday, the only "winning" move is, literally, moving to the global south, even if only to have plausible deniability at the pearly gates.
She was spewing some non-sense about Russia's dilapidated arsenal, and I'm like, sure, maybe, but China doesn't have any reason to tolerate the US glassing an immediate neighbor, whether they get along or not, nor to assume any sub-launched nukes crossing their territory aren't meant for them. Just the fallout would absolutely fuck Eurasia in general, even if we somehow avoided a worldwide nuclear winter.
Yeah, the biggest upside to confirming Russia is no longer a nuclear power is that a conventional response would then be plausible. Thinking this opens the door to a nuclear strike without retaliation is absurd and still a global disaster.
Now, I'm not saying Russia is no longer a nuclear power, but their conventional arsenal clearly wasn't as well maintained as we previously believed, and nuclear arsenals are also very expensive to maintain. But even if 90% of their nukes were unusable, it would still be a global threat if they launched them.