Posting this here so that in 3 years I can point to it and say "I told you so!" from a reeducation camp.
In economics and human behavior, sunk cost fallacy is a huge reason why people do what they do, and keep doing what they do. They are invested, they've spent the time and money thinking they'll get something out of it. It's why people who haven't caught a fish all day going on 5 hours, will spend 2 more hours out on the lake.
Based on the inauguration, the tech broligarchs are heavily invested in the current situation. And if you listen to them talk, they genuinely don't care WHO it is that makes what they want happen actually happen, they just want it to happen.
Humans also hate instability. While what's happening now reminds me SOOOooooo much of what I've seen in developing countries in terms of corruption, what those countries also suffer from is the whiplash effect of changing powers. If a new party comes into power everything will change. Not just who's in the WH, also who's on The Hill.
At some point, all the money and Gerrymandering in the world can't stop people from voting out of anger and going for the other guys, as milquetoast as they are.
So what should we expect? Midterms in 2026 will be bad, and I would bet a beer that we'll see a couple contested results that end up with a R/D even split, or sliiight D majority that will suddenly and surprisingly get rendered null because or some shenanigans. Either way, don't expect a slight D majority in the house to actually end up meaning something.
As for '28, I fully expect something to happen that counts as a full on constitutional crisis if it happened today, but by then will just be "Oh, you silly, we didn't expect that!" The GOP will run a primary, because it's a money-maker. But when a suitable heir apparent doesn't bubble up, then why on earth would El Jefe leave? (Short of newly religious Peter Theil running as a dark horse that the GOP would LOOOOVE)
And who will keep him there? Why all those donors and people that lined up to give him things. All the people he's locked out of their $T coin wallets for "reasons" that will get access back just in time to donate half of the value as a kickback. This level of chaos is something that these people can manipulate for enrichment, and something that they don't want to give up. Why let your Orange Goose fly away when he can write an EO declaring an emergency and suspending the 22nd Amendment?
Let's recall that the most recent historical attempt at an American coup was the "Business Plot" where oligarchs in 1933 wanted to overthrow Roosevelt and install a dictator, but the guy got cold feet. In 2028 you won't have to look that far to find the guy willing to stay around, and who has a tendency to help that along, but also will be willing to make it worth your while.
To anyone reading this in Nov 2028, please send a T-800 back to us to explain how to undo it all.
Since there is literally zero chance of an Amendment passing to override the two term limit, anything that allows Trump to run a 3rd time is confirmation that the election is a sham. Hell, forcing him onto the ballot this past election cycle was already a massive red flag and to be honest I'm fairly certain the midterms will be overwhelming Republican 'victories' and we won't even have to wait until '28.
Yes, I have voted in every election for the last few decades so I'm not justifying anything, I really do see us sliding right into a fascist dictatorship with the blessings of congress and SCOTUS. Not sure who will be Trump's puppet master in a few years as his obvious dementia progresses, but they will keep him front and center until he croaks.
My leading theory is that the lessons learned from an EO trying to undo the 13th Amendment are what will be used. Some new EO saying that due to some made up circumstance he's needed to continue being a shitbag maga saint, we're at war with anyone of the 30 wars we've been trying to provoke this week, etc. The reason is immaterial and so of course the minutia of that reason is what everyone will talk about, not the obvious nature of the this happening. All it will take is a dozen red states not challenging an EO undoing the 22nd Amendment to invalidate the whole election and drive just enough chaos to let them do whatever they want.
We had no issue holding votes during wars in the past so any attempt to use that argument will absolutely set off a civil war if one isn't already underway.
You're making my point for me - media and everyone else will, like usual, get mired in the details of precedent that he'll steamroll the process, do whatever he wants, and everyone will stand around saying "totally unprecedented! Irregular!" No, y'all, that's a coup. It's treason. It a dictatorship.
This is the same person that took literally 2 days off, had people spin up on twitter that he "mIgHt bE dEaD!" and then trotted out a nothingburger announcement to overshadow Epstein victims testifying in Congress. And y'all watched and hoped and fell for it.