this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2025
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Chances Republicans lose the Senate -near 0. For Congress to pass anything it would have to go through both houses, so even if they somehow flipped the house (which may be unlikely with all the gerrymandering happening) it wouldn't be possible.
I think they will lose both the Senate and the House because of import tarriffs, farms going out of business, and cutting medicare and snap. Small and medium size businesses that are heavily dependant on imports will be strained under these tariffs.
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.
We need 5 of those to flop to Democrat, without a single Democrat seat flopping.
Seats I think they maybe could able to win: Maine, North Carolina.
That would put Republicans at 51 seats + the VP That's assuming the Dems fill all the empty slots as well and keep the independents agreeing with them.
North Carolina is a reasonable bet with Tillis announcing he's not running again and Cooper announcing his run.