United Kingdom
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I feel like Reform are more likely to split the conservative vote than Jeremy Corbyn is likely to split the Labour vote. Mostly because the left has a very complicated relationship with him, he's truly awful at being a politician.
Meanwhile Farage is a good politician, he's good at playing up to a crowd, he's good at taking advantage of controversy.
Also of course signing up to the party newsletter doesn't mean that you'll vote for them when the time comes. A lot will be doing it to try and send a message to labour. I've signed up to the newsletter but I'm not particularly inclined to actually vote for them. Not unless labour gets substantially worse.