this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2025
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I was just thinking about the poor air quality today and yesterday here in the Midwest, and then I see this. I want to be hopeful we can change this in my lifetime, but I am also not optimistic.
I am optimistic. I will get downvoted to oblivion, but I want to share what I honestly observe:
1. AI demand is driving huge investment in production of carbon-free energy at scale.
Yes, AI is sucking up all the immediate term cheap fossil-fuel energy while it can. But it needs more, so it's driving carbon-free investment.
Immediate term with Small Modular fission Reactors (SMRs)
... and immediate term, multiple commercial fusion energy plants are being built.
2. Commercially viable carbon-free energy at scale is coming online in < 10 years
SMR is real, exists today, and just needs economies of scale ... and stable regulation. AI datacenters are driving the orders now and even if MAGA cultists keep USA out a few more years, science-accepting countries will be investing in clusters of those, rather than coal plants, when they see working examples and so less risk.
The Fusion plants this decade will not be just prototypes, but plants that produce more energy as a whole than they take in, multiple times over, and ofc don't produce nuclear waste. This is largely made possible by high temperature superconductors (which didn't exist commercially when ITER was built) and a demo plant fully online in 2027
EDIT: ofc we should reduce excess CO2 emissions immediate term, don't misconstrue long term optimism for polyannish denial of imemdiate term emergency
I feel like AI companies are creating a large demand for energy no matter where it comes from, and feel like having some minor investments in potential carbon free energy is mainly a marketing ploy or something to point at if they ever get sued.
Tbh, the big problem with nuclear in america is that we don't really have the federal power needed to actually coordinate and mandate the needed infrastructure for it. The US is so obsessed with state rights that we're susceptible to nimby attacks and disputes at the local and State level governments.
To actually cut through the red tape, we'd have to empower federal agencies for a good reason for once, and I'm not very optimistic about our current political climate.
Yeah..... I think it would be more accurate to say that fusion experimental sites are being built. Most nuclear engineers I've heard talk about fusion are still skeptical about fusion being viable in the next 20 years.