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Russia's new mobilization law yet another sign Kremlin is preparing for war with NATO, analysts say
(kyivindependent.com)
this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2025
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Europe
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What could possibly be the point of preparing for a non-nuclear war that includes close up fighting against US aircraft carriers?
It's good to keep your military prepared for all kinds of shit that might potentially go down, I can understand doing drills and being familiar with the enemy's kit. It seems fine. But the smart play in terms of Taiwan is that Trump will not do anything because he is Trump and he doesn't care all that much about Taiwan anyway. The play where they decide to start World War 3 and then win it, because they drilled against the aircraft carriers, and thus they were able to secure this one particular smallish island as "officially part of China" instead of "only unofficially part of China, and only to a 30% extent", seems... farfetched. That's kind of what I'm saying about the difference between saber rattling for domestic consumption vs. what they actually plan to do.
Look at these watercraft and tell me they’re just drilling: https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-barges-flood-taiwan-beaches-tanks
Xi must realize he screwed the pooch on peaceful reunification — Taiwan saw what happened to Hong Kong and did a quick 180. Xi also wants to write himself into the history books and conquering Taiwan would qualify. China has a rapidly-approaching demographic crisis (not from my point of view, but from that of someone planning an invasion) which means the window is closing.
When the US is well and truly in crisis, the EU (rump NATO) is balls-deep in a Russian invasion, who will stop Xi? Trump could easily sell out Taiwan for, I don’t know, a gift 747. Or something similar.
China has also drastically increased incursions into Taiwan’s territory to wear down their preparedness and conducted live fire drills inside Australia’s territorial waters just to put them on notice.
I’ll be surprised if China doesn’t attack before 2030.
Could be. They've definitely been building a bunch of what looks like invasion landing-craft, yes.