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The return comes from more future promises filled with ever increasing hot air. OpenAI is especially bad for this โ In 2024, they spend $9 billion to make $5 billion. They're losing money each year, but they drum up venture capital investment by saying "invest more money because some day we'll be profitable". Then they build larger, more complex GPT models to continue fuelling the hype machine, even though those models cost even more to run. But as long as OpenAI and the like can sustain the hype machine, venture capital will keep pumping money in. They have to, because they've got too much money in the system already, and when the bubble pops, the hot air will escape.
If they invested into something cool or meaningful, their returns will be limited. Tech seems to be especially appealing for venture capital because it facilitates the illusion of infinite growth being possible. The super rich don't really trade in money, because they borrow against their assets. Imagine if you owned a fairly modest house that was worth 500k, but you wanted to sell it for more. If you and a bunch of other people constructed an elaborate fiction that led to your house being valued at $10 million, then you could borrow multiple millions of dollars against the inflated value of your house. Even if early investors in a bullshit project wise up and realise their mistake, they haven't necessarily lost money as long as other investors still think the bullshit is worth investing in. So the cycle of venture capital means that everyone has a vested interest in keeping the hype train going.
It's an absurd bubble, and it's going to be absolute chaos when it bursts. Ed Zitron's analysis explores it really well.