AusLegal

The bill is still before the House of Representatives. It has had its first reading and the introducing minister has made his second reading speech. After that, the debate on the bill is adjourned to a future sitting day. The good news is that having made the second reading speech it's probably unlikely to be referred to a committee for a report.

The next step will be giving others a chance to debate it, before voting on its second reading. After that passes, it moves to consideration in detail, where amendments can be proposed and debated, before being voted on and potentially incorporated into the bill. It's not unusual even for the party that initiated the bill to move amendments to it, possibly in response to back-room discussions with other parties.

Once that is all done, the bill as a whole can be debated on one last time, before there is a vote for the third reading. On passing a third reading vote, the bill goes to the Senate, where the entire process repeats. If there are any amendments in the Senate, it returns back to the House of Representatives so that they can consider the differences and vote on that. If they then pass it, or if the Senate passes it without amendment, it goes to the Governor General for royal assent. This bill states that it goes into effect

The day after this Act receives the Royal Assent.

So once it has passed both houses, expect it to come into effect within 2 weeks at most.

How long it takes from where we are now to there depends on a number of factors. Chiefly: how much the Government is prioritising it, whether it receives the support of the cross-bench. If they want, it can be incredibly quick. Last year's Social Media Minimum Age Bill got from being introduced to the House of Representatives to passing with all amendments agreed to in 9 days (incidentally, this incredible rush and the related lack of serious consideration of expert opinions is exactly why it's such a terrible bill). There was a bit of a delay then (11 days) before it received Royal Assent. This is mainly to fit in with the Governor General's schedule, I believe. The last noteworthy Fair Work Amendment changes (around right to disconnect) took from 15 Feb to 16 May to pass both houses, and then received Assent on 31 May. The biggest delay was after it was introduced to the Senate and before debate was continued and the second reading voted upon by the Senate. That is not an unusual situation. 2022's Secure Jobs, Better Pay amendment had a modest delay between being introduced to the House and undergoing second reading debate, as well as another modest delay after the third reading in the House and before being introduced to the Senate. These are questions of how the Government chooses to prioritise it.

I suspect this bill will meet a friendly crossbench, but in the event it does not, as happened to the Housing Australia Future Fund bill in 2023, it could take longer during the second reading debate or during consideration in detail. It would depend on the Government to reach a negotiated agreement with the Greens (and possibly independents & minor parties) in the Senate. Note that the Greens alone are needed to pass the bill, while passing a bill without Greens requires every one of the One Nation, Lambie, United Australia, Australia's Voice (Fatima Payman) and independent Senators. So most likely it'll be Labor + Greens that matters; keep an eye out for what the Greens have to say about the bill and whether they will support it, and if not, why not.

If Labor wants to prioritise this, it could be in effect by the end of August. At a more likely pace, I would expect it no later than the end of October, unless the Greens notice a technical way in which it is not going to legally accomplish what Labor claims it will accomplish, in which case it will depend on how willing Labor is to amend according to outside feedback.